CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)…is located about 25 miles northwest of Apalachicola, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)…is located 50 miles south of Port Au Prince, Haiti
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)…is located 145 miles southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)
What the computer models are showing for TC 08L (Henri)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HENRI
According to the NHC Advisory 4…Henri is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is expected during the next day or two.
On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Henri is a small tropical cyclone.
Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island.
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)
TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…GRACE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
According to the NHC Advisory 14…Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days.
On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move near the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti through tonight, move between Jamaica and southeastern Cuba on Tuesday, near the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to regain tropical storm status on Tuesday.
Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic…5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.
Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands….2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica and the southern portions of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)
FRED MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE…HEAVY RAIN AND STORM SURGE THREAT CONTINUES
According to the NHC Advisory 29…Fred is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Fred will move from western Georgia on Tuesday across the southern Appalachian Mountains to West Virginia by Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression by early Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
A sustained wind of 49 mph ( 79 km/h) with a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) was recently observed at the Apalachicola Airport.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND RAINFALL:
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Southern and Central Florida… 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle… 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.
Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas… 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected.
Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States…2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front.
Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL…3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay… 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning.
SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible early this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.