Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    21 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Faranah - Guinea

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Yakossi, Mbomou - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Yei, Central Equatoria - South Sudan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Lokoja, Kogi - Nigeria

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SE of Cooma, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - Galvarino Commune, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - 9km NNE of Doganyol, Turkey

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jesup, GA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 57km W of Amatignak Island, Alaska

    21 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Ligonier, IN Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Beardstown, IL Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carlyle, IL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 61km W of Amatignak Island, Alaska

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 65 miles SE of Amchitka, Alaska - 5.5

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Diane

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Esami

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 15km E of Kirkagac, Turkey

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 33km W of Villazon, Bolivia

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Southwest Indian Ridge

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Kuchinoerabujima, Japan

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twelve

    14 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - East of the North Island of New Zealand

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 48km W of Amatignak Island, Alaska

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 60 miles SE of Amchitka, Alaska - 5.0

    19 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 56km W of Amatignak Island, Alaska

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 65 miles SE of Amchitka, Alaska - 5.0

    21 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 54km W of Amatignak Island, Alaska

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 70 miles SE of Amchitka, Alaska - 5.1

    21 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 65 miles SE of Amchitka, Alaska - 5.6

    21 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Novel Coronavirus – China

    1 week ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Taal, Philippines

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    1 month ago ADVISORY

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    2 weeks ago INFORMATION

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    7 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Avalanche - Montana, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Huanuco, Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Arequipa, Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Eastern Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanches - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Southern Switzerland

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Spain

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Portugal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern France

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Colorado, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Nunavut, Canada

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Thailand

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Kerinci, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tanzania, Zambia, DR Congo

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Zimbabwe and Mozambique

    4 days ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northwestern Angola

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    4 days ago WATCH

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 8km S of Indios, Puerto Rico

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Guatemala

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    6 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 weeks ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
August 13, 2019

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Krosa) is located approximately 237 NM south of Iwakuni, Japan

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1119.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Krosa)

Sustained winds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots…associated with JTWC Warning #36

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates a marginal environment, with an upper level low directly over the lower level circulation center, which is inhibiting central convection.

Sea surface temperatures remain warm.
A slight intensification to 50 knots is expected within 24 hours.

After 72 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan will combine with increasing wind shear, enough to weaken the system rapidly to 35 knots by 96 hours…as it approaches the waters of Hokkaido, Japan.

 

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_2d0.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes17_vis-swir_94E_201908132025.jpg
1.) 
An elongated trough of low pressure, being referred to as Invest 94E, located more than 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds become unfavorable. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
Here’s what the computer models show
* Formation chance through 48 hours…moderate…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent



2.) A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of the system over the weekend…while the system moves generally westward

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

 

Northeast Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of Oahu has remained disorganized over the past 24 hours. Some subsequent development of the system is possible as it moves westward at around 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Krosa)

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area


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