Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - Galvarino Commune, Chile

    30 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.3 - 105km WNW of Kirakira, Solomon Islands

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - 9km NNE of Doganyol, Turkey

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Flood - Shelton, WA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Faranah - Guinea

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Yakossi, Mbomou - Central African Republic

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Yei, Central Equatoria - South Sudan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Lokoja, Kogi - Nigeria

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SE of Cooma, New South Wales - Australia

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jesup, GA Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 57km W of Amatignak Island, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Flood - Ligonier, IN Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Beardstown, IL Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carlyle, IL Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 61km W of Amatignak Island, Alaska

    10 hours ago WATCH

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 65 miles SE of Amchitka, Alaska - 5.5

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Diane

    11 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Esami

    12 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 15km E of Kirkagac, Turkey

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 33km W of Villazon, Bolivia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Southwest Indian Ridge

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Kuchinoerabujima, Japan

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twelve

    18 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - East of the North Island of New Zealand

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 48km W of Amatignak Island, Alaska

    23 hours ago WATCH

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 60 miles SE of Amchitka, Alaska - 5.0

    23 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Novel Coronavirus – China

    1 week ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Taal, Philippines

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    1 month ago ADVISORY

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    2 weeks ago INFORMATION

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    7 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Avalanche - Montana, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Huanuco, Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Arequipa, Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Eastern Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanches - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Southern Switzerland

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Spain

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Portugal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern France

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Colorado, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Nunavut, Canada

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Thailand

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Kerinci, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tanzania, Zambia, DR Congo

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Zimbabwe and Mozambique

    4 days ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northwestern Angola

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    4 days ago WATCH

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 8km S of Indios, Puerto Rico

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Guatemala

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    6 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 weeks ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
July 17, 2019

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Danas) is located approximately 200 NM west-southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/jma/wpac/ir4-l.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Danas)

Sustained winds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots…associated with JTWC Warning 9

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that convection wrapping in from the east has obscured the low level circulation center.

Environmental conditions are favorable, with fair equatorward and poleward outflow, along with warm sea surface temperatures…and moderate 10-20 knot wind shear.

TS Danas will continue to track poleward through the next 48 hours, before turning northeastward.

Continued favorable environmental conditions should support intensification to 50 knots around the 48 hour point.

After 48 hours, diminished outflow and land interaction should cause gradual weakening.

After 72 hours, TS 06W should recurve northeastward as it passes near Japan…with slight weakening expected.

 

 

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W, located approximately 628 NM southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a large area of convection above a developing low level circulation center.
The upper level analysis shows moderate 15-20 knot wind shear limiting further development, along with strong upper level outflow…and warm sea water temperatures sustaining convection.

Models are split between two distinct solutions, with the GFS and ECMWF maintaining 91W as an independent system and tracking to the northeast behind TS Danas. While other models predict that 91W will be absorbed into 06W within 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18-23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis-swir_97E_201907181145.jpg

1.)A tropical wave, being referred to as Invest 97E (#1 above), is located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week.

This disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well south of the coast of Mexico.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes17_vis-swir_98E_201907181215.jpg

2.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure, being referred to as Invest 98E (#2 above), which is centered about 1350 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Upper-level winds appear to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression could form during the next two or three days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

After that time, conditions are expected to become less favorable for development.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

 

Northeast Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days.

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Danas)

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area


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