Tropical Cyclone 20W (Talim) is located about 79 NM north of Misawa, AB, Japan – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Otis) is located about 1170 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 17E (Norma) is located about 140 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) continues across the Japanese Islands
Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing
Here’s a looping satellite image of this system
Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #38 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots
Hurricane 15E (Otis) is active in the northeast Pacific…moving westward over the open eastern Pacific (system on the left)
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts (Category 3)
Here’s a satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC:
Otis's rapid intensification rate has leveled off over the past few hours, with the small clear eye not quite as distinct as earlier. Still, the cloud pattern of the hurricane remains well organized. While the 0000 UTC Dvorak estimates had subjective values near 90 kt, a 6-hourly data-T average was 105 kt. As a blend of these data, the initial wind speed is set to 100 kt. Otis is moving over marginal SSTs now, so any further intensification is expected to be slight. By tomorrow night, a combination of lower SSTs, drier air and an increase in southerly shear is forecast to cause a significant weakening of Otis. Almost all of the guidance show rapid weakening by early Tuesday, and this is the solution provided in the new NHC wind speed prediction. Global models suggest Otis will lose organized deep convection within about 3 days, so the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at that time. Otis is moving faster to the north, now at 7 kt. The hurricane should take a sharp westward turn in about 24 hours as it runs into a building ridge over the eastern Pacific, then turn west-southwest or southwest under that ridge. Very little change was made to the previous forecast, which lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 18.0N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 18.9N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 19.4N 128.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z 14.8N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Tropical Storm 17E (Norma) remains active in the northeast Pacific…moving northwestward over the eastern Pacific (near Baja California)
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.
Here’s a satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC:
The satellite appearance of Norma hasn't changed much since the last advisory, with a large curved band in the northwestern quadrant of the storm. Dvorak estimates support keeping the wind speed 45 kt for this advisory. Norma is forecast to gradually weaken starting Monday since it will be moving over cooler SSTs and into a drier, more stable airmass. No change was made to the previous forecast as the guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario. Norma is now moving west-northwestward, turning slightly to the left since the last advisory while it moves around a deep-layer ridge over northwestern Mexico. In about 3 days, the ridge weakens somewhat, which should allow the cyclone, or its remnants, to turn northwestward then northward. Guidance has continued to shift westward, and the official forecast is again moved in that direction. Because of the more offshore track, the chances of seeing tropical-storm-force winds over land are quite low, and the government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 21.4N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 21.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 21.8N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 22.1N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 23.7N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur and will continue into late Monday or Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Otis)
NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Tropical Cyclone 17E (Norma)
NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Central North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
Western North Pacific
Tropical cyclone 20W (Tamil) – Final Warning
JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
South Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
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