Tropical Cyclone 20W (Talim) is located about 157 NM northwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 15E is located about 1115 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 17E (Norma) is located about 55 miles east-northeast of Socorro Island
PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and the TAOS model for Tropical Cyclone 20W (Talim)
Typhoon 20W (Talim) has weakened into a Tropical Storm in the NW Pacific…moving towards the Japanese Islands
Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing
Here’s a looping satellite image of this system
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports a large unraveling eye with weakening convection and warming cloud tops.
Upper level analysis shows moderate to favorable wind shear, while poleward outflow remains robust. Due to the nearly stationary motion of TY 20W over the past 24 hours, ocean upwelling has brought cooler waters to the surface…leading to a weakening trend.
TS 20W will continue to track east-northeastward. Sea surface temperatures in the area are expected to improve as the system moves away from the area of upwelling water.
Upper level conditions will remain neutral for the next 36 hours. The intensity is forecast to remain steady around 75 knots, as the system makes landfall southeast of Sasebo, Japan.
Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #30 were 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots
PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for retiring TC 16E (Max), Tropical Depression 15, and Tropical Storm Norma
Tropical Depression 15E remains active in the northeast Pacific…moving westward over the open eastern Pacific.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
Here’s a satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC:
For the past several days, convection has developed repeatedly near the center of the depression, only to dissipate a few hours later. This trend has continued today, and the depression is currently at a convective minimum. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. Despite the lack of intensification so far, most of the guidance continues to show that the depression will become a tropical storm sometime in the next couple of days. Only the LGEM keeps the system weak throughout the forecast, though so far that has been a good forecast. For now, my forecast continues to follow the intensity consensus and shows very gradual weakening over the next couple of days. Given the low shear and moderate SSTs, it would still be a little surprising if the depression never strengthens. The depression continues to slow down, and is now drifting westward at about 2 kt. Very little change has been made to the track forecast, and the global models continue to show little motion for the next day or so while the cyclone remains trapped in weak steering flow. After about 24 h, a slow turn toward the north is expected in response to a mid-level trough located well to the north. A turn back toward the west should occur once the subtropical ridge becomes re-established around day 4. The NHC forecast remains near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.0N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.9N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 16.3N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 16.8N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 18.0N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 18.5N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Tropical Storm 17E (Norma) remains active in the northeast Pacific…moving northwestward over the eastern Pacific.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts.
Here’s a satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC:
Infrared satellite imagery indicates that banding associated with Norma has increased during the past few hours. The convective cloud tops have cooled and the band surrounding the center has become a little more solid with the formation of a ragged banding eye. Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 4.0, and with the recent increase in organization the initial wind speed is increased to 65 kt. Norma becomes the eighth hurricane in the eastern Pacific this season. Norma should remain over warm water and within a low shear environment during the next 24 to 36 h. These conditions favor strengthening, but the large size of Norma is likely to keep the intensification rate in check. Increasing vertical shear and cooler waters are expected to impart gradual weakening after 48 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the SHIPS guidance. Norma has been moving slowly north-northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 335/2 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move slowly northward during the next couple of days, while it remains along the western side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, the ECMWF develops a narrow ridge to the north of Norma which causes the hurricane to turn northwestward. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps Norma on a north track over the Baja California peninsula. The trend of the track guidance has been westward during the past several cycles, so the NHC forecast lies slightly west of the consensus, and closer to the ECMWF that has been more consistent over the past few runs. Given the large spread in the guidance later in the period, the confidence in the track forecast after 48 hours remains low. The 48-hour forecast track and wind radii are very close to the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. However, with the persistent westward shifts in the guidance, a tropical storm watch does not appear to be needed at this time. We will assess future model trends for the possibility of a watch issuance later tonight or tomorrow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.0N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 19.3N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 21.0N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 22.0N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 23.7N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 24.6N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 25.5N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 15E
NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Tropical Cyclone 17E (Norma)
NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Central North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
Western North Pacific
Tropical cyclone 20W (Tamil)
JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
South Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
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