Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Sanvu) is located about 176 NM northeast of Chichi Jima, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Mawar) is located about 165 NM east-southeast of Hong Kong

Tropical Cyclone 14E (Lidia) is located about 85 miles north of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 17W (Sanvu)

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Sanvu) remains a typhoon and is peaking in strength…well offshore to the southeast of southern Japan

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this storm

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #19 were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 18W (Mawar)

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Mawar) is currently at the tropical storm level…and not expected to reach the typhoon stage

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this storm

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #6 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, TAOS model for TC 14E (Lidia)

Finally, in the northeastern Pacific…Tropical Storm 14E (Lidia) is impacting the southern Baja California

NHC Advisory #13A shows sustained winds are at 50 mph

Tropical Storm Lidia formed Wednesday evening south of Baja California…with flooding reported Thursday in Los Cabos. Flooding impacted San Jose del Cabo, with almost 12 inches of rainfall reported.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California, Sinaloa and coastal areas of Sonora, with locally higher amounts up to 20 inches possible.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Baja California Peninsula from San Jose de Las Palomas to Isla San Luis and also for mainland Mexico from Altata to Puerto Libertad.

This graphical map shows the Watches and Warnings in the area.

This system will continue to produce heavy rainfall capable of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

A track to the northwest is expected to continue into this weekend, essentially taking the center of Lidia up along or near the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula.

Gusty winds and heavy rain will affect Los Cabos today, with impacts over the rest of the southern Baja continuing into Saturday.

There is a chance some of the tropical moisture associated with Lidia could enhance thunderstorm activity in parts of the Desert Southwest this weekend.

By late this weekend, Lidia will begin to weaken and become a remnant low…as it interacts with land and cooler water temperatures west of the Baja California Peninsula.

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

The center of Lidia has been moving over the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula.  While the convective cloud pattern
has become somewhat ragged, a recent surface observation from
Loreto, Mexico indicates that maximum sustained winds remain near
50 kt.  The storm also continues to have a large wind field in the
eastern semicircle as shown by a prolonged period of tropical-
storm-force winds at Los Mochis on the Mexican mainland.

Weakening is expected while the circulation interacts with the
mountainous terrain of Baja California.  However, tropical-storm-
force winds will continue to extend well east of the center, riding
up the peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California for about the
next 24 hours.  When Lidia emerges over the Pacific, it is expected
to be over sea surface temperatures near or below 24C, which should
cause it to quickly decay to a remnant low.  The latest large-scale
model guidance suggests that a circulation should persist through
96 h, possibly due to interaction with a nearby mid- to upper-level
low late in the forecast period.  Thus, a 96 h point has been
included.

The initial motion is now 325/10.  Lidia remains between a mid-level
high centered over the southwestern United States and the
aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough to the southwest and south
over the Pacific, and these features should keep the cyclone on a
general northwestward course for the next 72 h or so, followed by a
turn toward the west-northwest.  The new forecast track has the
center over or just off of the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula for the next 18-24 h before emerging over the Pacific
Ocean. Overall the new track is an update of the previous track that
lies close to, but is slightly faster than, the various consensus
models.

While Lidia should weaken, the heavy rainfall threat will continue
over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during
the next few days.  Moisture from the cyclone could reach the
southwestern United States over the weekend.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

RAINFALL:

Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into
Baja California, Sinaloa and the coastal section of Sonora, with
isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches.  These rains may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Some of the tropical
moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the desert Southwest this
holiday weekend, including southern California, southern Nevada and
southwestern Arizona.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the southern
portion of Baja California Sur and over portions of the Mexican
mainland at this time.  These conditions should spread northward
across the warning areas of the Baja California peninsula and
mainland Mexico through Saturday.  Wind speeds atop and on the
windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent
stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and
in some elevated locations could be even greater.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja
California Sur.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja
California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 14E (Lidia)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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