Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

By: PDC
August 23, 2017

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Kenneth) is located about 1595 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Hato) is located about 72 miles west of Hong Kong – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions and wind radii, and TAOS Model for Tropical Cyclone 13E (Kenneth)

Tropical Storm 13E (Kenneth) has weakened and will continue winding down quickly…staying away from land

Here’s a current satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this Tropical Storm

The NHC advisory #21, shows sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), practically all of Kenneth’s deep convection has dissipated while the system traverses a cool sea surface. The cyclone is likely to continue to weaken due to cool waters and strong south-southwesterly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough to its west.

Kenneth should become a post-tropical cyclone in 12 to 24 hours or sooner. Kenneth or the post-tropical cyclone should continue to move through a break in the subtropical ridge on a generally north-northwestward heading, with some deceleration over the next couple of days.

Later in the forecast period, when the cyclone is likely to be very weak and shallow, a turn toward the northwest is expected following the low-level flow.

There is no threat to the Hawaiian Islands in the central Pacific…although there may be some rising surf along the east facing shores.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for retiring TC 15W (Hato)

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Hato) has made landfall near Hong Kong…and has been given its Final Warning by the JTWC

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this storm

A youtube video showing Hato as it slammed into the area near Hong Kong

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that TY 15W made landfall about 70 NM west of Hong Kong, and has continued to track quickly inland. The system intensified to a peak of 100 knots just prior to landfall.

Currently, animated satellite imagery and radar imagery indicate the system has weakened due to land interaction.

TY 15W is forecast to track west-northwest and will dissipate within 36 hours…as it tracks over rough mountainous terrain (elevations 4000-6000 feet)

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #14 were 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance which is being referred to as Invest 96W…located approximately 655 NM east of Manila, Philippines

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a developing low level circulation center, iwth strong mid-level turning, and flaring deep convection.

Upper level analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment, with low to moderate northerly wind shear…and broad diffluence aloft.

The GFS model depicts a compact system tracking west-northwestward toward Luzon, with gradual development over the next 2-3 days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 13E (Kenneth)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 15W (Hato) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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