Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Greg) is located about 965 miles east of South Point, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Hilary) is located about 475 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Irwin) is located about 940 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Noru) is located about 347 NM north-northeast of Minami Tori Shima, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 09W (Kulap) is located about 475 NM north-northwest of Minami Tori Shima, Japan – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Nesat) is located about 570 NM north of south of Kadena AB

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclones Greg, Irwin, and Hilary

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Greg) remains active, and is forecast to gradually weaken…staying away from land

Here’s a satellite image of this Tropical Depression, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a looping satellite image

According to the National Hurricane Center, strong shear became established over Greg, and the cyclone now consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a few small patches of deep convection. Initial intensity is 25 knots, and with increasing wind shear aloft, and cooler waters nearby, weakening should continue.

Greg should become a remnant low later today. The depression is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 10 knots, steered by the low-level trades, and this general motion should continue until dissipation in a day or so.

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Hilary) remains active as a hurricane…offshore from the southern coast of Mexico

Here’s a satellite image of this Hurricane, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a looping satellite image

According to the National Hurricane Center, satellite images indicate that Hilary remains a powerful hurricane. The central dense overcast has become more symmetric, although convection is still preferentially forming in the eastern eyewall. Any eye feature, however, is somewhat less distinct than a few hours ago, and the latest microwave passes are again showing an open eyewall on the west side.

There are still hints of northerly shear in cirrus cloud motions, although the cyclone’s cloud canopy looks less distorted than yesterday. This shear is forecast to persist for the next day or two, while the hurricane moves over warm waters. After that time, while the wind shear could decrease, Hilary will be traversing marginally warm waters, with some increase in drier, more stable air in the environment.

Most of the guidance is in good agreement on little change in the short-term, with a gradual decrease in wind speed through 3 days. Beyond then, much colder waters should cause a more rapid weakening, along with some interaction with Irwin.

The track forecast is essentially unchanged for the next 48 hours, while Hilary is expected to be steered by the mid-level subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the ridge is forecast to become weaker to due to a mid- to upper-level trough dropping over the Baja California peninsula. Models are not in good agreement on how much the ridge weakens due to this trough, leading to a wide disparity of solutions at long range.

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Irwin) remains active, and is forecast to reach the hurricane status briefly…offshore from any land areas

Here’s a satellite image of this Tropical Storm, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a looping satellite image

According to the National Hurricane Center, satellite images and microwave data indicate that Irwin’s cloud pattern has significantly deteriorated since yesterday. It now consists of a tight circulation center located just to the south of an area of deep, but not too well organized, convection. Consequently, the initial intensity has been decreased to 55 knots.

The environment does not support significant weakening, but is not favorable for much intensification either. The NHC forecast calls for a slight weakening today, and shows no change in intensity for the next 5 days.

Irwin is moving toward the west-southwest at 6 knots. Currently, the cyclone is embedded within weak steering currents, and Irwin will probably continue on the same slow west-southwest track during the next day or two. After that time, Hurricane Hilary is forecast to pass well north of Irwin, and the steering currents will change to southerlies, and most of the models agree that Irwin should begin to move with a northerly component in the wake of Hilary.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclones Noru, Nesat…and retiring Kulap

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Noru) remains a Typhoon…maxing out in strength now over the open ocean in the northwest Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this Typhoon…along with what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #24 were 80 knots with gusts of 100 knots.

Tropical Cyclone 09W (Kulap) is a dissipating Tropical Depression…and will continue to dissipate – Final Warning

Here’s a satellite image of this Tropical Depression…along with what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #20 were 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots.

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Nesat) is now active…and will strengthen into a typhoon

Here’s a satellite image of this Tropical Storm…along with what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 07E (Greg)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 09E (Hilary)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 10E (Irwin)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of Mexico in a day or two. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next few days due to strong upper-level winds. These winds might become more conducive for some development this weekend as Hurricane Hilary moves farther away from the disturbance. This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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