Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

By: Glenn James
February 26, 2018

There are no active tropical cyclones at this time

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

However, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 94S…located approximately 590 NM north-northeast of La Reunion Island

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad circulation with disorganized deep flaring convection.

The disturbance is currently located in an area of good poleward diffluence aloft, low wind 10-15 knot wind shear…and very warm sea surface temperatures. The low level vorticity signature is relatively weak and disorganized at this time mitigating near term development.

However, conditions are expected to remain favorable over the next several days, with increased likelihood of development beyond 2-days.

Global models show 94S tracking slowly to the south-southwest over the next several days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.