Tropical Cyclone 13P (Linda) is located about 397 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia
PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 13P
Tropical Cyclone 13P will maintain its strength for a while longer…as it tracks towards the east coast of Australia
Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing.
Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the system has rapidly consolidated as fragmented bands, mostly emanating from the north, coalesced and wrapped tighter into the low level center.
Upper level analysis indicates that the system is in an area of low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, that is offset by strong dual outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the area are very conducive for development.
TC 13P will track southwesterly, and then after 48 hours the storm will begin to track southward…and finally recurve towards the southeast.
Despite the upper level winds being in-phase with the storms motion, the wind shear is expected to increase as the system moves poleward. However, the favorable conditions will prevail and promote moderate intensification up to 50 knots within 24-36 hours.
Thereafter, strong wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will take their toll and erode the system…with dissipation within 96 hours over water.
Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #5 are estimated to be 40 knots…with gusts to 50 knots.
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 99S…located approximately 700 NM northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar
Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation center, with weak convection.
The upper level environment is favorable, although being offset by moderate to strong 20-30 knot wind shear…which is preventing substantial development at this time,
Meanwhile, the sea surface temperatures are warm and will support further development.
The models indicate that the system will track westward towards Madagascar, reaching tropical storm strength beyond 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
>>> Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 90B…located approximately 180 NM south-southwest of Colombo, Sri Lanka
Here’s what the computer models are showing.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery reveals persistent convection centrally located over a consolidating low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis reveals low 5-10 knot wind shear, and that the system is tracking over warm sea surface temperatures.
The models indicate the system will track to the northwest, reaching tropical storm strength within the next 36-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
Eastern North Pacific
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Central North Pacific
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Western North Pacific
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South Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 13P
JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
North Indian Ocean
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South Indian Ocean
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Arabian Sea
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