Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

By: Glenn James
March 11, 2018

There are no active tropical cyclones at this time

However, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 99S…located approximately 660 NM southwest of Diego Garcia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation center, with weak convection.

The upper level environment is favorable, although being offset by moderate to strong 20-30 knot wind shear…which is preventing substantial development at this time,

Meanwhile, the sea surface temperatures are warm and will support further development.

The models indicate that the system will track westward towards Madagascar, reaching tropical storm strength beyond 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> Additionally, there’s a second tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 90B…located approximately 260 NM south-southwest of Honiara, Solomon Islands

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery reveals persistent convection centrally located over a consolidating low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis reveals low 5-10 knot wind shear, and that the system is tracking over warm sea surface temperatures.

The models indicate the system will track to the northwest, reaching tropical storm strength within the next 36-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> Finally, there’s a third tropical disturbance circled in red above, being referred to as Invest 90P…located approximately 695 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.