Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

By: Glenn James
November 28, 2017

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

However, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 96S…located approximately 333 NM northeast of Cocos Island, Australia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts limited convection over a poorly organized low level circulation center.

Upper air analysis shows the disturbance under strong 20-25 knot wind shear, and weak divergence…while sea surface temperatures remain favorably warm.

Global models predict that 96S will move eastward into an environment that’s more conducive for formation.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a second tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 95S…located approximately 317 NM southeast of Jakarta, Indonesia

Here’s what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts flaring convection into a well organized low level circulation center.

Upper air analysis shows that 95S is under a region of favorable divergence, with light to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures remain warm.

Global models indicate that 95S will remain near stationary…drifting slowly east to southward over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 28-33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to medium

Finally, there’s a third tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91B…located approximately 121 NM east-southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka

Here’s what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows an unorganized and elongated low level circulation center…with scattered convection throughout the periphery of the circulation.

Upper air analysis shows that 91B is under a region of favorable divergence, offset by moderate to strong 25-30 knot wind shear. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures remain warm.

Global models are slow to develop this system as it tracks to the northeast.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 23-28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high