CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
There are no active tropical cyclones
However, there’s a tropical disturbance in the NE Pacific (circled in yellow above)…with a low chance of developing
According to the NHC…A trough of low pressure located over 1500 miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of the disturbance in a day or two as it moves westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Meanwhile, there’s a second tropical disturbance (being referred as a Invest 92W…circled in orange to the right above), which is located approximately 425 NM west-northwest of Guam
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a slightly elongated low level circulation with persistent convection located over the center…and low level banding beginning to form.
The disturbance is currently located in an area of good divergence aloft, low 10-15 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models show the system tracking to the northwest over the next several days, with development possible as it tracks westward to the north of Luzon, Philippines.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
>>> Finally, there’s a third tropical disturbance (being referred as a Invest 94W…circled in orange to the left above), which is located approximately 260 NM north-northwest of Palau
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery and microwave images depict a broad circulation, with primarily flaring convection located just offset of the center to the northwest…although beginning to wrap into the center.
The disturbance is currently located in an area of excellent poleward divergence aloft, low 5-10 knot wind shear…and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models show the system tracking to the east before moving northward, embedded in the monsoon trough over the next several days…with development with time.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
Northeast Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Central North Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Western North Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
South Pacific
There are no active tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no active tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
There are no active tropical cyclones
Arabian Sea
There are no active tropical cyclones
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