Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
April 18, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 783 NM northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…due north of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Fantala is a major tropical cyclone in the Southern Indian Ocean…reaching the Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TC Fantala is tied with TC Agnielle (1996) as the 2nd strongest southern Indian Ocean storm on record.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this tropical cyclone, taken today. Here’s a UW-CIMSS animated satellite image of this monster storm.

Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 783 NM west-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a distinct 16 NM eye, surrounded by an intense convective core structure.

Animated water vapor images depicts a symmetric system with radial outflow supporting the current intensity.

Currently, TC 19S is tracking slowly northwestward into a very conducive environment. This is expected to sustain the convective structure with low wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

TC Fantala is expected to take an abrupt turn, tracking back towards the southeast through the next 72 hours.

Throughout the forecast period TC 19S is expected to slowly weaken, due to the increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures…as it gains latitude.

In the extended period, this powerful tropical cyclone will take a turn westward…towards the northeast coast of Madagascar.

The center of Fantala’s strongest winds are expected to stay north of Madagascar, though the northern parts of the island could see bands of rain and gusty winds early this week. Additionally, high surf will be pounding the coasts of northern Madagascar, making for very dangerous conditions for mariners!

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #14 were 150 knots (175 mph) with gusts of 180 knots (200 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

In addition, there’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90P, circled in red above…which has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 375 NM west-southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa , here’s a satellite image…and a near real time wind profile – and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center, with limited central convection. Microwave imagery showed a well defined center, with the associated convection sheared just southeast.

Environmental analysis indicates marginal, although improving conditions, with 15-20 knot wind shear…and strong poleward divergence.

Global models show the disturbance tracking northeastward into a low wind shear environment, with weak development. Sea surface temperatures are conducive for further development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27-32 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

Information from the NWS in American Samoa:

SHORT TERM…
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT…LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD BAND OF SHOWERY CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE WEST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TERRITORY. THIS BAND MARKS AN
ACTIVE TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CENTER (INVEST 90P) LOCATED
ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUTUILA. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE TERRITORY
TONIGHT…CAUSING AN UPWARD TREND IN SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM…ESPECIALLY OVER SURROUNDING
WATERS. AT THIS TIME…INVEST 90P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH VERY LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

LONG TERM…
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT…CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
INVEST 90P DOMINATING WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AMERICAN SAMOA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER…SINCE MODEL
SKILLS ARE LOW FURTHER OUT IN TIME…WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MAKE NECESSARY UPDATES AS FUTURE MODELS POPULATE.

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area