Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
March 18, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Emeraude) remains active…located about 734 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15S (Emeraude)

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Emeraude) remains active in the south Indian Ocean…still over 1,000 miles away from land

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing / This is a youtube video of a graphical flyby of TC Emeraude

Tropical cyclone 15S is located about 734 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts tight convective cloud banding, into a partially exposed low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC Emeraude is under weak 5-10 knot wind shear. However, weak upper level outflow and decreasing ocean heat content…are contributing to the current weakening trend. This slow trend is forecast to continue for the next 48 hours, as the system tracks over increasingly unfavorable environmental conditions.

After 72 hours, more favorable conditions are expected to support re-intensification, as poleward outflow is re-established, and sea surface temperatures begin to increase again.

This tropical cyclone is expected to peak within 96 hours, reaching 105 knots, before weakening once again within 120 hours.

A gradual increase in east-southeast motion is forecast over the next 12 hours. Within 36 hours, a sharp turn to the west-southwest is expected.

Weather model guidance continues to not be in good agreement, showing significant track direction and steering environment differences, especially after 24 hours. Therefore, the JTWC notes that the confidence level remains low in regards to the particulars.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #06 were 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area