Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
February 21, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 298 NM west of Suva, Fiji

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…and is on a weakening trend over the open ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this still very strong tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This animated satellite image shows TC Winston as it moved into the Fiji area – along with a youtube video showing the damaging conditions

This tropical cyclone is located about 298 NM west of Suva, Fiji

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a convective core structure that has become further elongated as the tropical cyclone has decreased forward speed…allowing the 15-20 knot wind shear to have a greater impact.

The system has maintained a ragged 17 NM eye feature, as it tracks westward over favorably warm sea surface temperatures.

The next 12 hours will find the TC moving poleward (South Pole), weakening as the wind shear prevents the system from gaining symmetry. Beyond 24 hours, Winston will begin to intensify briefly…as sea surface temperatures warm slightly. However, as the system gains latitude, it will move over a progressively cooler sea surface, which will begin the final weakening trend shortly thereafter.

TC Winston will eventually turn westward, which will bring moderate to high levels of wind shear to bear…over the then tropical storm level system.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #34 were 115 knots with gusts of 140 knots

Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston made landfall in Fiji on Saturday, killing at least 10 people and destroying hundreds of homes. Strong winds and flooding from Winston have caused severe damage across the island nation. A month-long state of disaster has been declared in response.

The Fiji Times also reported that police teams are out and helping residents throughout the country, though widespread communications issues are interfering with police efforts to assist residents of the outer islands.

Tropical cyclone Winston hit Fiji Saturday, and moved westward overnight along the northern coast of Viti Levu. Fiji’s capital, Suva, located in the southern part of the main island, was not directly in the cyclone’s path…and avoided the worst of its destructive power.

A graphic showing where in the list of Earth’s Strongest Tropical Cyclones at Landfall…Cyclone Winston fits in.

This is a Special Weather Statement for Tropical Cyclone Winston – from the Fiji Meteorological Service:

Special Weather Bulletin Number 45 for Fiji 
ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 7:57pm on Sunday the 21st of February 2016 

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR VIWA ISLAND
IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP,
WESTERN VITI LEVU, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND IS NOW
CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR LOW LYING
COASTAL AREAS OF FIJI IS NOW CANCELLED.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP,
VITI LEVU, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR
THE REST OF FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE [930HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.5 SOUTH 174.0 EAST OR ABOUT 330KM WEST OF VIWA OR
ABOUT 370KM WEST NADI AT 6PM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST AT
ABOUT 21KM/HR FURTHER AWAY FROM FIJI.  CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE
CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 205KM/HR AND MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 285KM/HR. 

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE GALES OVER VIWA
IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WESTERN VITI LEVU, KADAVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS:

STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTEAST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 45KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUST TO 80 KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE PLACES AND THE REST OF VITI LEVU.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI: 

MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY FALLS POSSIBLE. 

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON.

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area