Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
February 8, 2016

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the South Indian Ocean

However, there’s an area of disturbed weather over the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 96S, circled in yellow above…that has a low chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 250 NM northwest of La Reunion Island, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing / and a near real wind profile

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation center, with deep flaring convection beginning to consolidate towards the center

Upper air analysis indicates a favorable environment, with weak 5-10 knot wind shear…and good radial outflow

Global models are consistent in further developing this area into a tropical cyclone

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and two areas of disturbed weather over the South Pacific Ocean

There’s a second area of disturbed weather over the South Pacific, being referred to as Invest 97P, circled in yellow above…that has a low chance of developing (the disturbance to the left on the Atlas image above)

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a compact weak low level circulation center

Upper air analysis indicates moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…offset by dual outflow channels

Global models are in fairly good agreement on the development of this system

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

Finally, there’s yet another area of disturbed weather over the South Pacific Ocean, being referred to as Invest 98P, circled in yellow above…that has a low chance of developing (the disturbance to the right on the Atlas image above)

This tropical disturbance was located about 470 NM east Honiara, Soloman Islands, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing / and a near real wind profile (the swirl to the east of Invest 97P)

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation center, with deep flaring convection…consolidating into cloud bands converging towards the center

Upper air analysis indicates a marginal environment, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…being offset by good radial outflow

Global models agree on development of this system

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area