Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
January 14, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1650 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Tropical Depression 01C (Pali) remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1650 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Sustained winds as of the CPHC advisory #29 were 35 mph…with movement towards the southwest at 6 mph

The storm is too far away to bring more than small pulses of surf to Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

PALI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL BUT PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES…INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LIMITED CONVECTION.

BASED ON WHERE THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS PERSISTING…AND AFTER MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POSITION ESTIMATES… THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AN UNCERTAIN 230/5 KNOTS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AND PALI’S PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR, ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE SMALL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALSO…STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EQUATOR WHICH AIDED IN THE DEVELOMENT OF PALI A WEEK AGO ARE NO LONGER PRESENT…WITH THE FLOW NOW HEADED TOWARD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

THUS IT NOW APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT PALI WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PALI WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS.

DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER…AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL THIS OCCURS.

In general, most tropical cyclones do not form within 5 degrees latitude of the equator, due to the weakness of the Coriolis force needed to help generate the low-level spin.

Former Hurricane Pali is the southernmost tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific basin, developing at just 4.7 degrees north of the equator…very likely influenced by the warmer than average sea-surface temperatures associated with this strong El Niño.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98P in the south Pacific Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

This disturbance was located about 394 NM east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows formative cloud bands have slightly deepened and wrapped tighter into a better defined low level circulation center.

The upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, being offset by strong divergent outflow…with channels on both the south and northern sides.

Sea surface temperatures are very warm, and highly conducive for development.

Global models show significant development within 24-36 hours, as it tracks to the south.

Maximum surface winds were 25-30 knots

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours has been upgraded to high.

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area