Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans - Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global)

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
January 7, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active…located about 201 NM west-southwest of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 01C is now active…located about 1500 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active in the southwestern Pacific…temporarily on a brief strengthening trend

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing

This TC was located about 201 NM west-southwest of Suva, Fiji…and has been moving northwestward at 05 knots.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…of course spinning in a clockwise fashion in the southern hemisphere

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows an increase in deep central convection, as the wind shear has slowly decreased over the past 12 hours.

Surface conditions have seen marginal improvements in the sea surface temperatures, and ocean heat content, as the system has moved to the northwest…into a more favorable environment.

Upper level poleward outflow remains favorable, supporting the recent improvement in organization.

Model guidance shows a weakness in the subtropical ridge of high pressure to the southeast is creating the weak steering flow, but will begin to improve over the next 24 hours, as the ridge builds back to the west…turning the system to the southwest.

As TC Ula moves into a less favorable environment, increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures…will lead to the dissipation of the system by 72 hours.

Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #17 were 45 knots…with gusts to 55 knots

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C

Tropical Depression 01C has now spun up in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this depression…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere

After a record setting hurricane season in 2015, the central Pacific now has an out of season tropical depression spinning. TD 01C’s activation today breaks by six days the record for earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the Central Pacific…set by Tropical Storm Winona on January 13, 1989.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this system is located over some of the warmest waters…associated with this powerful El Niño event.

Several of the computer models show this tropical depression attaining tropical storm strength by Saturday. If this were to occur, it would take on the name Tropical Storm Pali. Only two other tropical storms have been active in January across the central and northeast Pacific…since records began back in 1949.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY, HAVE PERSISTED SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO CLASSIFY THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS LOW-LATITUDE OUT-OF-SEASON SYSTEM
HAS TAPPED INTO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...WITH AN
EL-NINO RELATED WESTERLY WIND BURST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM...AND 
PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING THE 
LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. 

THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND HAS BEEN
DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 350/04 KNOTS. 

TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO FAIRLY DISTINCT CAMPS...WITH THE
DIFFERENCES MOST SIGNIFICANT AFTER 72 HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST. 

AFTER THIS TIME...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD WELL TO 
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IS 
WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE. 

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH FIRST INDUCES A REDUCTION IN FORWARD 
SPEED...AND THEN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IN SOME MODELS. 
THERE ARE OTHER MODELS THAT DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH...AND MAINTAIN A 
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS A TURN TOWARD THE EAST 
AND SOUTHEAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW FOR 
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL DAYS 
4 AND 5. DESPITE THE WINTER SEASON...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG 
THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. 

THE LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE 
DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT IN WHICH THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C
CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area