Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…located about 650 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Patricia) remains inland over Mexico…located about 95 miles northeast of Zacatecas, Mexico
Tropical cyclone 25W (Champi) remains active…located about 250 NM north of Minami Tori Shima
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf) remains active the central Pacific, staying away from the Hawaiian Islands…still as a major category 3 hurricane
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), AT 500 AM HST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 145.3 WEST.
THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO CURVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLAF IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
OLAF IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING HAWAII –
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE OLAF WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.
Tropical Depression 20E (Patricia) remains active over Mexico, the big winds are gone, although heavy rains continue…as it moves further inland
Former Hurricane Patricia was downgraded to a tropical depression this morning, within 24 hours of being the strongest hurricane ever known to impact the Pacific coast of Mexico. Patricia is expected to dissipate over the high mountain terrain of Mexico later today, but it will contribute precipitation to an already dangerous flooding situation in Texas.
Earlier Friday, Patricia became the most powerful tropical cyclone ever measured in the Western Hemisphere as its maximum sustained winds reached an incredible 200 mph!
This made Patricia among the most rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones ever witnessed in the world so far.
Patricia weakened even faster than it strengthened; by 4 a.m. CDT Saturday, its maximum sustained winds had dropped to 75 mph…a loss of 125 mph from just 24 hours earlier.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Patricia continues to weaken rapidly over the mountains of central Mexico. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the mid- to upper-level center is now displaced to the northeast of the surface center, and there is little organized convection associated with the cyclone.
The initial intensity is reduced to 30 knots based mainly on surface observations, and this could be generous. Patricia is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or trough during the next 6-12 hours as it moves northeastward into northeastern Mexico.
A low pressure area is developing over southern Texas, with the system forecast to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later in the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, the low is likely to absorb the remnants of Patricia along with the associated moisture, and this is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area.
1.) Even though Patricia is weakening rapidly, continued very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible near the center through this afternoon, especially in higher elevations. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. In addition, the heavy rain threat ahead of Patricia or its remnants will increase Saturday across northeast Mexico into coastal sections of Texas. This heavy rain threat will continue across the western Gulf Coast through this weekend and spread into the central Gulf Coast by early next week. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside but will remain above normal through this afternoon.
Tropical Storm 25W (Champi) remains active in the western Pacific, and will steadily weaken…moving over the open ocean away from any islands
This TS was located about 250 NM north of Minami Tori Shima…and has been moving east-norrtheastward at 16 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows decaying deep convection, displaced over the northeast quadrant of the low level circulation center. There was also tightly curved shallow cloud bands wrapping into a defined microwave eye feature.
Upper level analysis shows that TS 25W is tracking under moderate to strong 20-30 knot wind shear, while vigorous poleward outflow is offsetting the shear.
TS Champi will accelerate northeastward within the mid-latitude prevailing westerlies, while undergoing extra-tropical transition.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #46 were 60 knots…with gusts to 75 knots
Meanwhile, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, circled in orange above …that continues to have a medium chance of developing
This disturbed area was located about 265 NM east of Victoria, Seychelles
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an exposed, elongated low level circulation center, with deep convection sheared to the west.
Upper level analysis shows a marginal environment, with moderate to strong 20-30 knot wind shear…offset by diffluent flow aloft
Global weather models indicate slow development over the next 2-3 days.
Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium
>>> Finally, there’s another area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Bengal, circled in yellow above …that has a low chance of developing
This disturbed area was located about 190 NM east of Colombo, Sri Lanka
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center…with formative cloud banding.
Upper level analysis reveals a favorable environment, with low wind shear. However, land interaction should hinder significant development over the next 1-2 days…unless the system tracks poleward off the east coast of Sri Lanka
Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Patricia)
Central North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Champi)
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea