Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…located about 640 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Patricia) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 125 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
Tropical cyclone 25W (Champi) remains active…located about 643 NM north of Saipan
Tropical cyclone 26W is now active…located about 759 NM northwest of Wake Island, FSM – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf) remains active the central Pacific, staying away from land…as a major category 3 hurricane
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), AT 500 AM HST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 146.2 WEST.
OLAF IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLAF IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
OLAF IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING HAWAII –
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE OLAF WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
Hurricane 20E (Patricia) remains active in the eastern Pacific, as an extremely dangerous category 5 system…greatly threatening the Mexican coast
Here’s a NASA video showing hurricane Patricia heading towards the Mexican coast
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia since the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 175 knots. Some fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours.
After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours.
The hurricane has turned northward since the previous advisory and the initial motion is now north-northeast at 9 knots.
Patricia is about to recurve into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S.
These features should steer the cyclone generally north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico until dissipation occurs.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia’s remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days.
1.) Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area tonight or early Friday.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 103.8 West. Patricia is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph, and this motion is expected to continue today with a reduction in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest and then toward the north is forecast tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a major hurricane later today or tonight and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Typhoon 25W (Champi) remains active in the western Pacific, and will steadily weaken…moving over the open ocean away from any islands
This typhoon was located about 643 NM north of Saipan…and has been moving eastward at 15 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a ragged eye feature, with continued deterioration of the convective structure…as it becomes further elongated to the northeast.
Upper level analysis shows a poor environment with wind shear in excess of 30 knots.
Typhoon 25W will track east-northeastward to northeastward throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures will continue to erode this typhoon…as it gains latitude.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #42 were 80 knots…with gusts to 100 knots
Tropical Depression 26W…is now retired, and has been given its Final Warning by the JTWC
This TD was located about 759 NM northwest of Wake Island, FSM…and has been moving northeastward at 26 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system is now embedded in the mid-latitude prevailing westerlies…as it accelerates northeastward.
Consequently, the system has commenced extra-tropical transition, and will transform into a cold core low pressure system within 12 hours.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #4 were 25 knots…with gusts to 35 knots
Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, circled in orange above …that has a medium chance of developing
This disturbed area was located about 740 NM west-northwest of Diego Garcia
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows consolidating convective banding with increased organization
Upper level analysis shows a marginally favorable environment, with 20-30 knot wind shear…and strong diffluence.
Global weather models show limited development of this disturbance
Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to medium
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Patricia)
Central North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Champi)
Tropical Cyclone 26W – Final Warning
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea