Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf) is now active in the central Pacific Ocean…located about 720 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Patricia) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 285 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico
Tropical cyclone 25W (Champi) remains active…located about 75 NM east-southeast of Iwo To, Japan
Tropical cyclone 26W is now active…located about 745 NM northwest of Wake Island
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf) remains active the central Pacific, staying away from land…as a major category 3 hurricane
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), AT 500 AM HST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 146.3 WEST.
OLAF IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY…WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
OLAF IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLAF IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY. OLAF IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING HAWAII –
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE OLAF WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
Hurricane 20E (Patricia) remains active in the eastern Pacific, as a dangerous category 2 system…greatly threatening the Mexican coast
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane Patricia continues to strengthen, with an eye evident in recent microwave images and intermittently seen in infrared imagery. The initial intensity is set to 85 knots, and Patricia has intensified 50 knots in the last 24 hours.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Patricia later today and provide valuable information on the intensity and structure of the hurricane. The environment is expected to be conducive for continued rapid strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of very low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures. In fact, the SHIPS RI index shows a 95 percent chance of a 40 knot increase in the next 24 hours.
The official forecast shows Patricia reaching major hurricane status by this evening, and continuing to intensify through Friday morning. Little change in intensity is forecast on Friday prior to landfall, as southwesterly wind shear begins to increase.
After landfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low level circulation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours.
The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 15 knots. The track forecast philosophy has not changed, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then northward during the next 24 hours. Then, the hurricane should turn north-northeastward.
Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area. Note that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants and moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
This moisture could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas.
1.) Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area tonight or early Friday.
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 103.8 West. Patricia is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph, and this motion is expected to continue today with a reduction in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest and then toward the north is forecast tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a major hurricane later today or tonight and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Typhoon 25W (Champi) remains active in the western Pacific, and has peaked in strength…having passed within 81 NM offshore to the southeast of the small island of Iwo To (formally named Iwo Jima)
This typhoon was located about 75 NM east-southeast of Iwo To, Japan…and has been moving east-northeastward at 8 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a mostly unchanged convective core structure, that is surrounding a 36 NM eye.
Upper level analysis shows a marginal environment with moderately strong 20-25 knot wind shear, being offset by a strong poleward outflow channel.
Typhoon 25W will continue to track east-northeastward to northeastward throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures will continue to erode this typhoon…as it gains latitude.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #38 were 100 knots…with gusts to 125 knots
Tropical Depression 26W…is now briefly active in the western Pacific
This TD was located about 745 NM northwest of Wake Island…and has been moving north-northeastward at 20 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts an elongated low level circulation center…with a disorganized convective structure.
Upper level analysis shows this depression in a marginal environment, with 15-20 knot wind shear being partially offset by a dual channel outflow.
TD 26W is expected to track northeastward, and with increased poleward outflow, will intensify slightly. This system will begin its extra-tropical transition over the next 12-24 hours.
Increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures…will further weaken the system.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #3 were 25 knots…with gusts to 35 knots
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Patricia)
Central North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Champi)
Tropical Cyclone 26W
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea