Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf) is now active in the central Pacific Ocean…located about 890 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Patricia) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 320 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico
Tropical cyclone 25W (Champi) remains active…located about 108 NM south-southwest of Iwo To, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf) remains active the central Pacific, staying away from land…as a major category 3 hurricane
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF OLAF CONTINUES TO DEGRADE…WITH THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE SPORADICALLY COMING AND GOING IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY…THUS INDICATING THAT OLAF HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
OLAF APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING THE EXPECTED GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THEREAFTER, OLAF WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES…WHICH WILL STEER IT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES OLAF OVER STEADILY COOLER SEA WATER TEMPERATURES.
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS…WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. THUS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT RATE OF WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
There continues to be no direct threat to the Hawaiian Islands, as this powerful hurricane moves by well offshore to the east of the Hawaiian Islands.
The one exception to this safety, will be the dangerous high surf conditions that will be impacting our east facing beaches. The NWS office in Honolulu has issued a high surf advisory for Maui…and a high surf warning for the Big Island of Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Patricia) remains active in the eastern Pacific…offshore from the Mexican coast
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), conventional and microwave satellite data show that Patricia remains poorly organized. The low-level circulation is elongated from north to south, and there is little evidence of a tight inner core.
While the convection is vigorous, it is occurring mainly in an almost linear area west and south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 knots.
TS Patricia is moving faster toward the west with an initial motion of 10 knots. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy. The tropical cyclone is expected to initially move westward to west-northwestward. After about 24 hours, Patricia is expected to turn northwestward and northward
The model guidance is in excellent agreement with this scenario and forecasts landfall along the coast of southwestern Mexico between 48-72 hours.
Continued light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures are favorable conditions for Patricia to strengthen, if the storm can overcome its current disorganized condition. Based on the premise that this will happen, the intensity forecast is identical to that of the previous advisory in calling for the cyclone to become a hurricane in about 36 hours and continue strengthening through landfall.
Several of the guidance models forecast a higher peak intensity than the official, and rapid intensification remains a possibility given the favorable environment.
After landfall, Patricia should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of western Mexico. There are no changes to the watches for the coast of Mexico at this time. Warnings my be required for portions of the watch area later today or tonight. It should be noted that several of the global models develop a low pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in four to five days. At this time, it appears that this system will be a non-tropical low that absorbs the remnants and moisture of Patricia moving northeastward across Mexico.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Typhoon 25W (Champi) remains active in the western Pacific, and has peaked in strength now…passing not far offshore to the southeast of the small island of Iwo To
This typhoon was located about 108 NM south-southwest of Iwo To…and has been moving northeastward at 4 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates a slight intensification trend with tightly curved convective cloud banding, wrapping into a 28 NM ragged eye.
Upper level analysis shows a favorable environment with a high pressure area over the center, improved poleward outflow, being enhanced by the prevailing westerly wind flow.
Typhoon 25W will continue to track east-northeastward to northeastward through the next 24 hours. After 36 hours, environmental conditions will degrade, leading to a steady weakening trend. Increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures by the 48 hour point…will further weaken the system.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #34 were 75 knots…with gusts to 90 knots
>>> Former Tropical Storm Koppu has been given its Final Warning…and the JTWC has ended its forecast coverage.
Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the western Pacific, being referred to as Invest 94W…that has a high chance of developing
This disturbed area was located about 300 NM west of Wake Island
Upper level analysis indicated that the system is in an area of low to moderately strong wind shear…with good equatorward outflow.
While there is limited global model development of this system, the increase in persistent convection over the past 36 hours, leads to moderate confidence that this system will develop.
Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 18-23 knots
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high
Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, circled in yellow above …that has a low chance of developing
This disturbed area was located about 748 NM west of Diego Garcia.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows fragmented and shallow formative cloud bands along the southern and northern peripheries. During the last 12 hours, the convective area has been flaring, but with no discernible improvement overall…and is ill defined.
Upper level analysis shows a marginally favorable environment, with moderate wind shear…but weak diffluence.
Global weather models show minimal development of this disturbance
Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Patricia)
Central North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Champi)
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea