Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 1595 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical cyclone 24W (Koppu) remains active…located about 149 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical cyclone 25W (Champi) remains active…located about 368 NM south of Iwo To, Japan
Tropical cyclone 02P remains active…located about 321 NM west-northwest of Suva, Fiji
Tropical Storm 19E (Olaf) remains active in the eastern Pacific…remaining away from land
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Olaf’s cloud pattern has not exhibited much overall change since the last advisory in conventional satellite imagery.
The convective distribution of this storm is suggestive of some northwesterly wind shear, although there was indications of a mid-level eye, perhaps not completely coincident with the low-level center.
The mid-level subtropical ridge of high pressure steering Olaf westward, is about to weaken in response to the long tail of a mid- to upper-level trough near the U.S. west coast settling southward to the north of the storm. The weaker ridge should induce a slower forward speed with a gradual increase in latitude during the next couple of days.
After 48 hours, a large anticyclone forming in the east-central subtropical Pacific near 140W is forecast to shift eastward, while a weakness develops along 150W.
Global models show Olaf moving in the flow between these two synoptic features, which should result in a northwestward and then north-northwestward turn after 96 hours. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged through 36 hours.
After that time, the track forecast is shifted westward in agreement with a leftward- shifting multi-model consensus and a majority of ECMWF ensemble members that were farther west than the operational ECMWF solution that lies east of the multi-model consensus. The new track forecast is on the western side of the guidance envelope.
Except for the northwesterly shear, there are no obvious impediments to continued strengthening for the next few days. Exactly how much the shear is a factor, however, remains to be seen, but its most likely effect would be to possibly slow the rate of intensification.
According to the SHIPS output, the northwesterly shear diminishes after 36 hours, and with all other large-scale factors favoring intensification, Olaf is likely to become a major hurricane in 2 or 3 days.
Late in the forecast period, once Olaf gains enough latitude, a drier environment with an increase in southerly or south-southwesterly shear should result in weakening. The official intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus through 36 hours and generally above it after that time.
Super Typhoon 24W (Koppu) made landfall near Casiguran, Aurora…on the eastern coastline of Luzon as a a very dangerous cyclone!
This STY was located about 149 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines…and has been moving west-northwestward at 6 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a continued deepening of the system, with deep convection surrounding a 20 NM sharp eye. The combination of a powerful and slow-moving typhoon will very likely cause a disastrous situation for residents and communities in its path.
Upper level analysis indicates STY 24W will encounter excellent environmental conditions, with low wind shear, excellent dual outflow channels..and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Super Typhoon 24W will continue to track westward through the next 24 hours.
While damaging winds are a major concern, the greatest threat will be life-threatening flooding from days of torrential rainfall.
12 to 24 inches of rain is expected to be widespread along and to the sides of Koppu’s path across Luzon. There may be localized amounts upwards of 36 inches…such rains will prompt severe and life-threatening floods and mudslides.
Residents in Baguio, Bangui, Aparri, Tuguegarao and Pagudpud are among those across northern Luzon who are being urged to prepare for the impending severe flood danger.
Based on current JTWC forecast path, Koppu will stay far enough to the north for Manila to escape the worst of the impacts…although heavy rain may push into the city and surrounding areas into Monday.
Koppu will rapidly decay due to land interaction over the mountainous terrain of Luzon.
The system will begin to intensify once again due to low wind shear and warm sea water temperatures…reaching typhoon again over the ocean southeast of Taiwan.
This typhoon will bring very heavy weather to Luzon, along with high surf and storm swell conditions to the east coast.
The Philippines is struck by about 20 major storms each year, with the disasters regularly killing thousands of people annually and compounding deep poverty for millions.
In November 2013, more than 7,350 people were left dead or missing in the central Philippines as Super Typhoon Haiyan — the strongest storm ever recorded on land — destroying entire towns.
STY Koppu is making landfall on the central coast of the Philippines’ biggest island of Luzon this morning, with wind gusts of up to 150 miles an hour.
The typhoon’s forecast strength is on a par with ST Haiyan, which hit land with sustained winds of 140 knots…and gusts to as high as 170 knots!
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #19 were 130 knots…with gusts to 160 knots
Typhoon 25W (Champi) remains active in the western Pacific, and will continue to gain strength…passing directly over the small island of Iwo To
This storm was located about 368 NM south of Iwo To…and has been moving northwestward at 17 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a developing 13 NM eye feature surrounded by a deep convective core
Upper level analysis shows the system is located in a favorable environment with low wind shear, and a good equatorward outflow.
Typhoon 25W will track northwest through the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter, it will take a more north to northeastward track, with an increase in intensity through 36 hours.
In the extended forecast period, TY Champi will remain on a northeastward track and weaken. The small island of Iwo To will see typhoon Champi pass within 5 NM of the center.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #18 were 90 knots…with gusts to 110 knots
TS Champi crossed the Northern Mariana Islands Friday with wind gusts near 80 mph.
While Saipan was heavily impacted by TS Champi, Guam was located far enough south to miss the worst of this tropical cyclone. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph however did occur…along with locally heavy downpours of rain.
Tropical Cyclone 02P remains active in the southwestern Pacific, maintaining strength…and then weakening
This storm was located about 321 NM west-northwest of Suva, Fiji…and has been moving south-southwestward at 15 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the partially exposed center, with flaring convection sheared to the southeast.
Upper level analysis shows the environment is marginally favorable, with 10-20 knots of wind shear…offset by strong poleward outflow.
Tropical cyclone 02P is forecast to continue tracking southwestward through the remainder of this short forecast period.
However, beyond 24 hours, wind shear will increase, causing the system to dissipate within 2-days.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #4 were 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Olaf)
NHC textual warning
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
1.) A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, extending from Central America westward to several hundred miles south of southeastern Mexico, is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while the low moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Central North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Champi)
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea