Tropical Cyclone 19E remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 1360 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical cyclone 24W (Koppu) remains active…located about 281 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical cyclone 25W (Champi) remains active…located about 146 NM north-northwest of Andersen AFB
Tropical cyclone 02P is now active…located about 309 NM north-northwest of Suva, Fiji
Tropical Depression 19E remains active in the eastern Pacific…remaining away from land
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), this tropical depression’s cloud pattern consists of a recently formed cluster of deep convection and fragmented convective banding features around the outer circulation.
It is unclear why this tropical cyclone has not yet responded by intensifying in a large-scale environment of light wind shear, a relatively moist mid-troposphere, and very warm sea waters. Perhaps the structure of the circulation has been a limiting factor.
Regardless, global models continue to develop a hurricane in the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within a few days. The statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is quite similar this cycle, though the statistical output is slightly lower than before as a result of the cyclone’s not intensifying yet.
TD 19E is forecast to maintain a generally westward motion underneath a subtropical ridge of high pressure to the north during the next few days, and decelerate as the tail of a mid- to upper-level trough of low pressure extending from the U.S. west coast causes the ridge to weaken.
A further weakening of the ridge after 48 hours should cause the tropical cyclone to begin to gain more latitude, and an encounter with a more significant weakness west of 140W… resulting in an even more poleward track by 96 hours.
This tropical depression will take on the name tropical storm Olaf within 24 hours.
Typhoon 24W (Koppu) remains active in the Philippine Sea…moving towards Luzon Island
This storm was located about 281 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines…and has been moving west-northwestward at 10 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep convective cloud banding wrapping tightly into the low level center.
Upper level analysis indicates TY 24W is in a favorable environment, with low wind shear and almost dual outflow channels.
Typhoon 24W will continue to track westward through the next 36 hours.
Upper level and environment conditions will continue to improve, leading to a rapid intensification (RI) over the next 24 hours…with a peak intensity of 120 knots.
Beyond that, Koppu will make landfall and begin decaying, as it track through Luzon Island. In the extended period this Typhoon re-emerges into the Luzon Strait as a tropical storm, and tracks northwards.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #15 were 90 knots…with gusts to 110 knots
This typhoon will bring very heavy weather to Luzon, along with high surf and storm swell conditions to the east coast.
According to Yahoo…
The Philippines is struck by about 20 major storms each year, with the disasters regularly killing thousands of people annually and compounding deep poverty for millions.
In November 2013, more than 7,350 people were left dead or missing in the central Philippines as Super Typhoon Haiyan — the strongest storm ever recorded on land — destroyed entire towns.
Koppu was expected to make landfall on the northeastern coast of the Philippines’ biggest island of Luzon on Sunday morning with wind gusts of up to 115 miles an hour, the state weather service said.
The area where it is first expected to hit, is a mainly farming and mountainous region, about 270 kilometres northeast of Manila.
The typhoon’s forecast strength was not on a par with ST Haiyan, which hit land with winds of 315 kilometres an hour.
Typhoon 25W (Champi) remains active in the western Pacific…and will slowly increase in strength, after having moved through the Mariana Islands
This storm was located about 146 NM north-northwest of Andersen AFB…and has been moving west-northward at 6 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows good cloud banding, especially over the west portion, wrapping tightly into the center.
Upper level analysis shows TY is located in an area of low wind shear, which is being offset by good divergent outflow.
Typhoon 25W will track west-northwest through the next 12 hours. Thereafter, it will take a more poleward track, with an increase in intensity through 48 hours.
In the extended forecast period, TY Champi will remain on a northeastward track and weaken. The small island of Iwo To will see typhoon Champi pass by very close, within 45 NM to the east-southeast. Otherwise, now that this strengthening typhoon has passed through the Mariana Islands, it will remain over the open ocean until clipping Iwo To.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #14 were 65 knots…with gusts to 80 knots
The NWS office in Guam reports the following: the forecast track map for Typhoon Champi
AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CHST THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2N AND LONGITUDE 143.4E. THIS IS ABOUT 170 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN ABOUT 190 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA ABOUT 195 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN ABOUT 210 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN CHAMPI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 75 MPH. SITUATION OVERVIEW... SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT TYPHOON CHAMPI CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS AND SURF REMAIN BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMAIN IN YOUR SHELTER UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE. ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING NO LONGER IN EFFECT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AS THE WEATHER SLOWLY IMPROVES. WINDS AND SEAS... AS TYPHOON CHAMPI MOVES FARTHER WEST...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO SOUTH AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH ON LATER TODAY. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 8 TO 12 FEET ON LATER TODAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 11 TO 15 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG EASTERN SHORES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET AND SHIFT TO SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHER STORM EFFECTS... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ROTA- 232 AM CHST SAT OCT 17 2015 TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMAIN IN SHELTERS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. BE PREPARED FOR POWER AND WATER OUTAGES. WINDS AND SEAS... DAMAGING WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH DECREASING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 16 TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SURF WILL BE DANGEROUS AT 15 TO 20 FEET THIS MORNING...FALLING TO 12 TO 15 FEET LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHER STORM EFFECTS... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. TINIAN-SAIPAN- 232 AM CHST SAT OCT 17 2015 TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SAIPAN AND TINIAN REMAIN IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION OF READINESS 1. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN IN SHELTER UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS... DAMAGING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 20 TO 25 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 22 FEET TODAY AND TO BETWEEN 11 TO 18 FEET LATER TODAY. DANGEROUS SURF OVER 20 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 12 TO 19 FEET TODAY. STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... INUNDATION OF 4 TO 8 FEET IS LIKELY THIS MORNING ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS THIS MORNING. OTHER STORM EFFECTS... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS- 232 AM CHST SAT OCT 17 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OWNERS OF BOATS AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT...AS SEA CONDITIONS AND WINDS ARE PRODUCING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR ANY BOATING.
Tropical Cyclone 02P is now active in the southwestern Pacific, and will briefly increase in strength…before rapidly decreasing thereafter
This storm was located about 309 NM north-northwest of Suva, Fiji…and has been moving south-southwestward at 10 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows persistent convection along the southwest and eastern flanks of the center.
Upper level analysis shows the environment is marginally favorable, with 20 knots of northeasterly wind shear…offset by good poleward outflow.
Tropical cyclone 02P has a 24 hour window in which to intensify…as it tracks in-phase with the wind shear aloft.
However, beyond 24 hours, wind shear will increase, causing the system to dissipate within 2-days.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #2 were 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 19E
NHC textual warning
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
1.) An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south or south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development early next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Central North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
1.) A surface trough marking the remnants of tropical depression Nora is located about 205 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Upper level winds are not conducive for redevelopment of this system.
* formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Champi)
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea