Tropical Cyclone 18E (Nora) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…located about 280 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 19E is now active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 1080 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical cyclone 24W (Koppu) remains active…located about 463 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Tropical cyclone 25W (Champi) remains active…located about 218 NM east-northeast of Saipan
Tropical Depression 18E (Nora) remains active in the central Pacific…although poses no threat to the Hawaiian Islands
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), AT 500 AM HST…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 152.4 WEST – or about 280 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
TD NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE…WITH NORA BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 29.74 INCHES
The northern fringe of Nora will bring showers to the Big Island and Maui…and then perhaps stretching over to Oahu and Kauai with time. Otherwise, there is no threat to the Hawaiian Islands. The recent high surf advisory for the east shores of the Big Island has been dropped.
Tropical Depression 19E is now active in the eastern Pacific…remaining away from land
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Depression Nineteen-E’s cloud pattern has changed little during the past 6-12 hours, and consists of a persistent cluster of deep convection near the low-level center, and a lengthening cloud band extending to the north and northeast.
Although the depression has not strengthened yet, low vertical wind shear, very warm sea water temperatures, and a moist atmosphere…favor intensification throughout the five-day forecast period.
As such, the NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and shows the depression reaching hurricane intensity in a couple of days. The intensity models all show intensification to varying degrees.
The low-level center has been difficult to locate, but the depression appears to be moving westward at near 11 knots. An elongated mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to remain north of the depression for the next 3 days or so, but the ridge is expected to weaken through the weekend as broad trough of low pressure develops west of the Baja California peninsula.
This pattern change should cause the tropical cyclone to gradually slow down and turn west-northwestward by day 3 and northwestward by day 5.
Tropical storm 24W (Koppu) remains active in the northwestern Pacific, moving into the Philippine Sea…towards Luzon Island
This storm was located about 463 NM east of Manila, Philippines…and has been moving westward at 13 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep convective cloud banding wrapping tightly into the low level center.
Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment, with 20 knots of wind shear being offset by easterly divergent outflow.
Tropical storm 24W will continue to track westward through the next 72 hours.
Expect slow intensification, as the wind shear remains moderate, and in-phase with the storm motion. A peak of 100 knots is forecast within 48 hours…before the system makes landfall as a typhoon…and begins decaying over central Luzon Island.
In the extended period, TS Koppu will slow and turn poleward. In addition, the terrain of Luzon will continue to decay the system through 96 hours, with Koppu re-emerging in the northern Philippine Sea..still as a strong tropical storm.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #11 were 60 knots…with gusts to 75 knots
Tropical Storm 25W (Champi) remains active in the western Pacific…and will slowly increase in strength as it moves through the Mariana Islands
This storm was located about 218 NM east-northeast of Saipan…and has been moving westward at 16 knots.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep convection concentrated on the southwest side of the center.
Upper level analysis shows that easterly divergence continues to keep the 15-25 knot northeasterly wind shear in check.
Tropical storm 25W will track west-northwest through the next 36 hours. Thereafter, environmental conditions will remain more favorable, leading to a gradual intensification.
By 72 hours, TS 25W will be north of the high pressure ridge axis…allowing the system to peak at 100 knots due to increased poleward outflow. As the system gains latitude, wind shear will increase and sea surface temperature will decrease…leading to a reduced rate of intensification and a weakening trend. The small island of Iwo To will see typhoon Champi moving by with 117 NM to the east-southeast.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #10 were 50 knots…with gusts to 65 knots
The NWS office in Guam reports the following: the forecast track map for TS Champi
WATCHES AND WARNINGS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN... SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS. SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...16.0N 148.8E ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.8 EAST. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE WEST AT 18 MPH. CHAMPI IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF CHAMPI THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS NORTH OF ANATAHAN EARLY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON SOMETIME TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND UP TO 115 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Pacific, circled in red above, which has a high chance of developing
This area is being referred to as Invest 91P, here’s what the computer models are showing – with a satellite image
According to the JTWC, this area is located about 341 NM north-northwest of Nadi, Fiji…moving southward at 7 knots
Satellite imagery shows deepening symmetric convection associated with a well defined low level circulation center.
Microwave imagery depicts well defined spiral cloud banding with the bulk of the convection along the southhwestern periphery.
The disturbance is in a marginal environment, with 20-25 knot wind shear…being offset by an enhanced poleward outflow channel. Global models show weak development of this system, as it remains nearly stationary.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.
The JTWC notes that the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has now risen to high
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 19E
NHC textual warning
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
2.) An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Some development of this system is anticipated early next week while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Central North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 18E (Nora)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Champi)
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea