Tropical cyclone 03C (Kilo) remains active in the western Pacific Ocean…it was located about 762 miles east-northeast of Wake Island
Tropical cyclone 12E (Ignacio) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…it is located about 335 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii
Tropical cyclone 13E (Jimena) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…it is located about 815 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical cyclone 14E remains active in the northeastern Pacific Ocean…it is located about 570 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Typhoon 03C (Kilo) remains active in the western Pacific…staying away from land
This area is located about 762 miles east-northeast of Wake Island…moving northwestward at 04 mph.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows tightly curved deep convective cloud banding wrapping into a cloud filled eye.
Typhoon 03C is about to take an abrupt turn to the west-southwest, after moving northwest for the last few days.
This typhoon is forecast to slowly intensify after 24 hours. In the extended forecast period, this typhoon is forecast to accelerate westward to west-southwest…peaking at 120 knots by the 96 hour point over the open ocean.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #52 was 75 mph sustained winds
Tropical Storm 12E (Ignacio) remains active in the central Pacific…passing away offshore to the north of Hawaii
This area is located about 335 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii…moving northwest at about 12 mph.
According to the CPHC, DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF IGNACIO DURING THE NIGHT…BUT HAS REMAINED SPARSE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS CENTER HAS BEEN MARKED BY A WARM SPOT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY…BUT THERE IS NOT SUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION ON ALL SIDES OF THIS FEATURE TO REGARD IT AS AN EYE.
AFTER APPARENTLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT DURING THE HOURS LEADING UP TO 0600Z…IGNACIO APPEARS TO HAVE NOW RESUMED A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHWEST MOTION…AND TRACKING OF THE WARM SPOT WHICH IS THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE CENTER, LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/10 KNOTS.
TS IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS…WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 24 HOURS…TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK…WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS…THEN ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BEYOND 48 HOURS OUT THROUGH DAY 5…AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH.
THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS…THEN IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AT 120 HOURS.
IGNACIO CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDE NEAR 22 KNOTS.
SOME DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE AS WELL. IGNACIO MAY HAVE A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT LESS HOSTILE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WHEN SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN SOMEWHAT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN IGNACIO AT 60 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE AROUND 36 HOURS…WHEN IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
IGNACIO SHOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 5 IF NOT SOONER AS IT CROSSES 40N AND MOVES ACROSS INCREASINGLY COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC.
Maximum surface winds at the CPHC advisory #35 was 70 mph sustained winds
Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains in the central Pacific…staying away from the Hawaiian Islands
This area is located about 815 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii…moving west-northwestward at about 8 mph.
According to the CPHC, THE EYE OF HURRICANE JIMENA CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT. IN FACT…AS OF THIS ADVISORY ISSUANCE THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE.
THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WERE 6 KNOTS FROM 285 DEGREES. THEREFORE…THIS SHEAR MAY BE DOING SOME HARM TO THE INNER CORE OF JIMENA.
NOTE THAT THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLY HEALTHY.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY…AND IT IS NOW TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/07 KT. JIMENA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A WEAKENING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THIS STEERING MECHANISM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…CAUSING JIMENA TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE ITS FORWARD MOTION. THIS SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 2.
BEYOND 48 HOURS…THE GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF JIMENA. THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JIMENA TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 3-4 DAY TIME PERIOD. THE 5 DAY POSITION NOW INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AGAIN.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS…WITH SOME SLIGHT NUDGING TO THE RIGHT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ALONG MOST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. OF NOTE, ANALYSES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS THAT JIMENA APPEARS TO BE TRAVELING IN A LOCAL MINIMUM ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK. THESE LOWER VALUES OF THIS HEAT CONTENT MAY BE DUE TO PREVIOUS HURRICANES THAT HAVE RECENTLY TRAVERSED THIS REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHEAR. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS…COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #28 was 110 mph sustained winds
Tropical Depression 14E is now active in the eastern Pacific…staying away from the Mexican coast
This area is located about 570 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…moving north at about 9 mph.
According to the NHC, Enhanced IR and shortwave imagery continues to depict a relatively shapeless, asymmetric, convective mass, sheared to the northeast of the surface circulation.
Although deep convection has increased somewhat since yesterday, satellite intensity estimates still yield an initial intensity of 30 knots. The global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance are indicating a small window of opportunity during the next 24-36 hours for some strengthening.
Through the remaining portion of the period, weakening to a remnant low by day 3 is expected as the cyclone enters a region of stability, and begins to traverse cooler sea surface temperatures.
A fortuitous microwave overpass helped immensely in locating the surface center, and estimating the current motion of the depression which now appears to be northward at 8 knots.
The cyclone should continue moving in this general direction during the next 36 hours or so. After that time, a turn toward the north-northeast is forecast through day 3. By that point in time, the tropical cyclone should degenerate into a shallow swirl of low-level clouds, and basically drift within the weak steering flow created by an existing deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #8 was 35 mph sustained winds
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 14E
Central North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 12E (Ignacio)
Tropical Cyclone 13E (Jimena)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 03C (Kilo)
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones