Tropical cyclone 16W (Goni) remains active as it heads for southern Japan…it was located 215 NM south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan
Tropical cyclone 17W (Atsani) remains active in the northwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located 570 NM east of Yokosuka, Japan
Here’s a satellite image of both of the tropical cyclones above
Tropical cyclone 03C (Kilo) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…it was located about 680 miles southwest of Barking Sands, Hawaii
Tropical cyclone 04C (Loke) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…it was located about 210 miles south of Midway Island
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Typhoon Goni, and Tropical Storm Atsani
Typhoon 16W (Goni) remains active…as it takes aim on southern Japan
Here’s a satellite image of this typhoon, with its eye – along with what the computer models are showing
Typhoon 16W is peaking in strength…which is equivalent to a category 3 hurricane.
This typhoon will move through the southern Japanese Islands, bringing heavy flooding rain, very blustery winds, high surf and storm surge.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC warning #43 were 110 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 135 knots.
Tropical Storm 17W (Atsani) remains active in the northwestern Pacific, although is losing steam…and staying away from land
This tropical cyclone is located well offshore to the east of Japan.
Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm – along with what the computer models are showing
Tropical storm 17W has peaked in strength now…and will be diminishing in strength throughout the rest of its life cycle.
TS Atsani will find lower sea surface temperatures, and increased wind shear as it gains latitude…which will erode this storm going forward. The current track will continue to keep this storm away from land and island areas (Japan)…over the open ocean.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC warning #42 were 60 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 75 knots.
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Storm Kilo and Tropical Depression Loke
Tropical Depression 03C (Kilo) remains active in the central Pacific, on its way to becoming a hurricane…although staying away from the Hawaiian Islands
This area is located about 670 miles southwest of Barking Sands, Hawaii…moving northwestward at about 7 mph.
According to the CPHC, THE CENTER OF KILO APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING KILO AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY.
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO CONFIRMS WHAT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS…THAT KILO CONTINUES TO BE A MESSY SYSTEM WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION THAT STRETCHES ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS.
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THE ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN…AND KILO WILL BE LEFT IN A LARGE AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT DAYS 2 AND 3. AT DAYS 4 AND 5…DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED NORTH OF KILO…FORCING THE SYSTEM BACK ON A WESTWARD TRACK.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…WITH MORE OF A WESTWARD TURN AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. ALTHOUGH TD KILO IS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES…IT APPEARS THE DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED WIND FIELD AROUND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT.
THE WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS EXPERIENCING 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…SO IF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CAN BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL THEN STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS KILO GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWARD AND SLOWS DOWN.
AT DAYS 4 AND 5…THE INTENSIFICATION TREND MAY BE ARRESTED AS KILO BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR.
Maximum surface winds at the CPHC advisory #16 was 30 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 40 knots.
Tropical Storm 04C (Loke) remains active in the central Pacific, well west-northwest of the Hawaiian Islands…and will be crossing over into the western Pacific in a few days
This area is located about 210 miles south of Midway Island…moving northeast at about 15 mph.
According to the CPHC, TS LOKE HAS MAINTAINED A RATHER WELL DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE NIGHT…WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINING FIRMLY UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE PRIMARY FACTOR CONTROLLING THE STEERING OF LOKE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WILL BE A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CUTOFF LOW, WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF LOKE…THEN LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF MIDWAY.
OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT…WITH LOKE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NORTHEAST MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY AND TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS CYCLE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS…BUT THE ACTUAL BEST TRACK HAS BEEN RUNNING TO THE LEFT OF MOST GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS… AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND REMAINS ON THE LEFT EDGE OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
LOKE IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS…AS IT CONTINUES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR MIDWAY AND BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE HUGE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI.
LOKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN…AND BY 96 HOURS SHOULD BE ABSORBED INTO THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF EX-ATSANI.
LOKE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS…THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 30N. WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD…THE MORE RAPID NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE STORM SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING SUFFICIENTLY LOW RELATIVE SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…BRINGING LOKE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 24 HOURS. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 48 HOURS…AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
Maximum surface winds at the CPHC advisory #15 was 55 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 65 knots.
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations
>>> Finally, there are two areas of disturbed weather in the NE Pacific…both remaining well away from the Mexican coast
The first is being referred to as Invest 95E, circled in red above…with a high chance of developing
This area is located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
The environmental conditions support development of this system…as it moves west-northwestward
>>> The second disturbance is located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico
Environmental conditions will be good, likely bringing this disturbance up to a tropical depression later this week
This disturbance will move slowly in a west-northwesterly direction…at 10-15 mph
Here’s a satellite image showing this disturbance…and the other disturbance further to the west
Eastern North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
1.) Satellite data overnight that the circulation of the slow-moving low pressure area located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system has also become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for continued gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the low begins to move slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
2.) Disorganized shower activity located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
