Tropical cyclone 09E (Guillermo) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 145 miles east-northeast of Kahului, Hawaii
Tropical cyclone 10E (Hilda) is now active in the northeastern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 1630 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical cyclone 13W (Soudelor) remains active in the northwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 324 NM south of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
Tropical Storm Guillermo remains active in the central Pacific…moving by offshore from the Hawaiian Islands
This area is located about 145 miles east-northeast of Kahului, Hawaii…moving westward at about 12 mph.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #31 was 40 mph sustained winds
According to the NHC, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TS GUILLERMO HAS BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS IS DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR, AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS.
THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HOSTILE CONDITIONS FOR THE INNER CORE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. AFTER CAREFUL REANALYSIS OF THE DATA REPORTED BY THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT, FLYING INTO GUILLERMO LAST EVENING…THIS DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER LEVELS, HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE STORM CENTER.
EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 45 KNOTS…THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION… WHICH WAS ABOUT 75 NM FROM THE CENTER. CLOSER TO THE STORM CENTER… THE WINDS WERE APPROXIMATELY 40 KNOTS.
AS A RESULT…GUILLERMO IS WEAKENING MUCH FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS TO NEAR 50 THOUSAND FEET ABOUT 55 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES INDICATE THAT GUILLERMO HAS WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. BASED ON ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INFORMATION FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE BASED GUIDANCE…WE HAVE MADE GUILLERMO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES AND IMAGERY…THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST…OR 275 DEGREES…AT 10 KT. ONCE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECAME DECOUPLED…IT HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED MORE TO THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEW STEERING MECHANISM.
WITH NO SIGNS OF DECREASING WIND SHEAR, OR ABATEMENT OF THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT…ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW WEAKENS GUILLERMO TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DEPRESSION IS THEN FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS…BUT THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT RAPID RATE OF DECAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUILLERMO COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED…WHICH IS DAY 2 FOR THIS FORECAST.
THE FINAL ANALYSIS OF THE WIND RADII FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LAST EVENING WERE USED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SIZE OF THE STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOTE THAT THERE WERE NO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LAST EVENING. GUILLERMO IS A VERY ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE…SO THE PRIMARY THREAT TO MARINERS REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND IN HAWAII
SURF…SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE…LIFE THREATENING SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY.
Tropical Storm Hilda is now active in the northeastern Pacific…moving generally towards the Hawaiian Islands
This area is located about 1630 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…moving westward at about 13 mph.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #3 was 40 mph sustained winds
According to the NHC, this tropical cyclone’s cloud pattern has significantly increased in organization since late yesterday. There is now a small central mass of deep convection, with a band on the northern side of the circulation. The center is also directly underneath this central convection, with increasing symmetry to the overall convective structure.
The general forecast scenario is for a subtropical high pressure ridge north of the storm, to steer Hilda westward for the next couple of days, with a slight bend toward the west-northwest after 36 hour
In about 72 hours, TS Hilda should move around the western end of the ridge, and encounter a break in this feature at the end of the forecast period. This pattern should cause Hilda to turn northwestward with a decrease in forward speed by 96 hours.
Large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors are forecast to be conducive for intensification through for the next 72 hours or so, except for a somewhat drier lower to middle troposphere along Hilda’s path in 2 to 3 days.
When the cyclone gains latitude late in the forecast period, it should begin to weaken, due to increasing southwesterly wind shear associated with a mid-upper level trough expected to be near the longitude of Hawaii.
Typhoon 13W (Soudelor) remains active in the western Pacific
This tropical cyclone is located approximately 324 NM south of Kadena AB, Okinawa…moving westward at 12 mph
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that a 30 NM diameter eye, with decaying deep convection.
Upper level analysis indicates that TY 13W continues to be located in an area of low wind shear, and radial outflow…which are both favorable. However, dry air is evident over the northwestern periphery of the system.
The JTWC expects this system to continue on a west-northwestward track through the next 48 hours.
In the short term, this typhoon is expected to increase in strength, due to improved environmental conditions and enhanced poleward outflow…with a secondary peak of 105 knots within 24 hours.
TY 13W is forecast to track generally towards the west-northwestward, moving over the open ocean, and then moving over the center of Taiwan as a weakening typhoon. It will bring harsh weather to that island, including high surf and storm surge.
It will be on a weakening trend as it crosses the Taiwan Strait…before making a second landfall over the eastern China coast near Quanzhou…still as a weak typhoon.
Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the western Pacific…to the northeast of Guam
This tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 96W, is located approximately 365 NM northeast of Andersen AFB, Guam
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) depicts a well defined, partially exposed low level circulation center, with fragmented convective cloud bands wrapping into the center.
Upper level analysis indicates that this disturbance is located in a marginally favorable environment, with low to moderately strong 10-15 knot wind shear…offset by good outflow.
The weather models indicate development of this disturbance in the next 24-36 hours, as the system tracks north.
Maximum sustained surface winds were 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to high.
According to the NWS office in Guam:
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL TO ALAMAGAN…PAGAN AND AGRIHAN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER…SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING…IT IS NOT YET POSSIBLE TO GIVE DETAILED INFORMATION ON ITS FUTURE TRACK AND CHANGES IN FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 10E (Hilda)
Central North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 09E (Guillermo)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 13W (Soudelor)
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones