Tropical cyclone 09E is now active in the northeastern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 1420 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii
Post-tropical cyclone 08E is dissipating in the northeastern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 1055 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii
Post-tropical cyclone 02B is dissipating inland over India…it was located approximately 12 NM north of Chittagong, Bangladesh
Tropical cyclone 13W is now active in the northwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 564 NM northeast of Chuuk, FSM
Post-tropical cyclone 08E is dissipating in the northeastern Pacific…and has been given its final advisory
Post-tropical cyclone 08E was located approximately 1055 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii…and has been moving westward at 13 mph.
Here’s a real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific, along with Tropical storm Guillermo to the southeast…and another tropical disturbance to the southwest
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), tropical Depression 08E has been devoid of organized deep convection near the center for more than 18 hours, except for an isolated thunderstorm that has recently developed just south of the well-defined circulation center.
However, the main band of convection is located in the northeastern quadrant, but it is more than 200 NM from the center. Therefore, this system no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone…it is being designated as a remnant low, and advisories are being discontinued at this time.
Since the remnant low is heading toward a more hostile environment, the new NHC official forecast is similar to the previous advisory, calling for dissipation in about 24 hours.
This general motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest by Friday morning. The remnant low is forecast to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility within the next couple of hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds at the NHC advisory #12, were 25 knots…with gusts to 35 knots.
Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, in the looping mode...and what the computer models are showing
This area is located about 1505 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…moving west-northwestward at about 13 mph.
According to the NHC, TS Guillermo’s convective pattern continues to improve, with a solid cloud band curving about half way around the center of circulation.
Upper-level outflow is expanding around the cyclone, and Guillermo should remain in a light wind shear environment for at least the next 3-4 days. In addition, sea surface temperatures are amply warm, and the atmosphere is moist and unstable.
Additional strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and there remains a 1 in 3 chance of rapid intensification during the next 24 hours.
Given the favorable environment, the official intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus for the entire forecast period. It should be noted that the HWRF model shows a stronger hurricane than is indicated in the official forecast, bringing Guillermo to category 2 strength in about 3 days.
Some weakening should occur by days 4 and 5, mainly due to increased wind shear and lower ocean heat content.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #3 was 40 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 50 knots.
Tropical Cyclone 13W is now active in the western Pacific
This tropical cyclone is located approximately 564 NM northeast of Chuuk, FSM
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that satellite imagery shows a consolidating system with formative cloud bands wrapping into a low level circulation center.
Upper air analysis depicts a marginally favorable environment, with low to moderate wind shear, offset by good poleward outflow.
Meanwhile, along track warm sea surface temperatures, and high ocean heat content, are also conducive for additional development.
TS 13W is forecast to track westward to west-northwestward throughout the forecast period, with environmental conditions expected to be conducive for development…reaching 100 knots within 72 hours.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC warning #2 was 35 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 45 knots.
Tropical Cyclone 02B is now dissipating inland over India
This cyclone is located approximately 12 NM north of Chittagong, Bangladesh.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that this dissipating system has tracked northward at 5 knots over the past hours.
The system has made landfall and is quickly degrading due to frictional effects…with dissipation due within 12 hours.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC warning #6 was 35 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 45 knots.
This is the final warning for this system.
Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance, circled in orange above…that has a medium chance of developing
This disturbance is located approximately 410 NM northeast of the Solomon Islands…moving southeastward
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that satellite imagery shows an area of deep convection associated with an elongated center…although which is quite limited.
Upper air analysis depicts strong diffluence and poleward venting.
Weather models indicate that this disturbance will slowly intensify…as it tracks southeastward.
Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now upgraded to medium
Eastern North Pacific
Post-tropical Cyclone 08E
Tropical Cyclone 09E (Guillermo)
Central North Pacific
1.) A low associated with post-tropical cyclone Eight-E is located about 1000 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. The low is generating disorganized isolated thunderstorms as it moves west at 10 to 15 mph. Redevelopment of Eight-E is not expected.
2.) Nhc is issuing advisories on tropical storm Guillermo, located about 1980 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii. Guillermo is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility on Saturday.
3.) An area of low pressure is located about 550 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. The low is generating only isolated thunderstorms as it moves west at 10 to 15 mph. Vertical wind shear over the system is expected to inhibit development over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…near 0 percent.
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 13W
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 02B – Final Warning
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones