Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans - Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global)

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
July 20, 2015

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Halola) remains active in the northwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 334 NM east-southeast of Iwo To

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Halolo

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Halola) remains active in the northwestern Pacific, remaining well north of Guam…and forecast to move just south of the small island of Iwo To, Japan

This tropical storm was located approximately 334 NM east-southeast of Iwo To, and has been moving west-northwestward at 14 mph.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image, along with the looping version...and what a few of the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning (JTWC), satellite imagery shows tight curved cloud banding, wrapping around the northern center of this tropical cyclone…into a well consolidated low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows the system is under a low wind shear environment, with excellent diffluence aloft. At the same time, there are warm sea surface temperatures under TS Halola.

TS Halola will track in a general west-northwesterly direction through the next 72 hours. Low wind shear and sea surface temperatures remain favorable, which will allow for this storm to slowly develop and intensify through the next 36 hours…with a peak strength of 80 knots reached within 48 hours.

What will then be typhoon Halola will move within 79 NM south of Iwo To, before moving by about 383 NM east of Okinawa. Thereafter, according to the JTWC track forecast, Halola will be curving to the north, and may strike the Japanese coast later this week. However, if the current forecast curve continues, or tightens a bit more, it may just brush by the coast offshore from Tokyo…time will tell.

Maximum sustained surface winds at the JTWC warning #42, were 50 knots…with gusts to 65 knots.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in red above, being referred to as Invest 99E…located about 700 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this disturbance, along with the animated view…and what the hurricane models are showing

Satellite imagery shows a consolidating, broad low level circulation center…with persistent deep thunderstorm activity.

Upper level analysis shows a marginally favorable environment, with strong wind shear…which is forecast to weaken soon.

Weather model guidance indicates that this tropical disturbance will continue to develop, as it has been for the last 5-days, as it tracks west-northwest at near 12 mph,…into an improving environment.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

This area has a high 80% chance of developing over the next two days…which remains a high 90% through the next five days

Eastern North Pacific

1.) Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become less organized since yesterday. Strong upper-level winds that have prevented development during the past 24 hours are forecast to decrease and become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two. This system is still expected to become a tropical depression by mid-week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent