Tropical Cyclone 11W (Nangka) remains active in the northwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 375 NM south-southeast of Iwakuni, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 01C (Halola) remains active in the western Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 149 southeast of Wake Island
Tropical Cyclone 05E (Dolores) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 310 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 06E (Enrique) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 1505 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Nangka) remains a typhoon and continues to intensify…over the northwest Pacific Oceanr
TY 11W was located approximately 637 NM south-southeast of Iwakuni, Japan, and has been moving northward at 8 mph during the past six hours.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows 10 NM eye has re-emerged, although a struggling convective cloud signature continues due to dry air wrapping into the center.
Upper level analysis indicates the system is located in a marginally favorable environment, with low to moderately strong, 10-15 knot wind shear, along with excellent equatorward outflow aloft. In addition, there is warm sea surface temperatures under this storm. However, dry air and subsidence to the north and west are limiting thunderstorm development.
TY 11W is forecast to continue tracking poleward over the next 24 hours, and thereafter shifting west-northwestward.
Environmental conditions will remain mostly unchanged, however the dry air mentioned above, and subsidence along the northern side of the system…will prevent increasing intensification.
Beyond 48 hours, as the system gains latitude, there will be increasing wind shear aloft, lower sea water temperatures, and land interaction will weaken this tropical cyclone.
The eventual track brings this what will be gradually weakening typhoon over the southern Japanese Islands into the Sea of Japan. This will bring very rough high surf conditions, and storm surge to the coastal regions…with very strong winds and flooding rainfall as well.
Maximum sustained surface winds at the JTWC warning #45, were 90 knots…with gusts to 110 knots.
Tropical Cyclone 01C (Halola) remains active in the western Pacific…taking aim on Wake Island
This Tropical Cyclone was located approximately 413 miles east-southeast of Wake Island, and has been moving northwestward at 16 mph.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning (JTWC), satellite imagery shows increased central convection, being elongated to the northeast…by moderately strong wind shear from the southwest.
TS Halola will track in a general northwesterly direction, with a modest intensification rate. There should be a slight westward shift in its track with time.
Beyond 72 hours, TS Halola will begin tracking northwestward again…with another increase in strength expected…due to more favorable environmental conditions.
This storm will remain over the open ocean, although move to within just 46 NM south of Wake Island…and then back on over the open ocean again.