Tropical Cyclone 09W (Chan-hom) remains active in the northwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 138 NM south of Kadena AB
Tropical Cyclone 10W (Linfa) has moved inland over China…it was located approximately 45 NM north-northeast of Hong Kong – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Nangka) remains active in the northwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 182 NM north-northwest of Saipan
Tropical Cyclone 04E remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 585 east of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 09W (Chan-hom) remains a Typhoon, with a bit more intensification expected…as it moves over the open ocean towards the China coast
TC 09W was located approximately 138 NM south of Kadena AB, and has been moving northwestward at 15 mph during the past six hours.
Here’s a real time wind profile of tropical cyclone Chan-hom in the northwestern Pacific
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows the system is large, with a radius of approximately 240 NM. Meanwhile, with this expansive radius, gale force winds extend north of Okinawa, with storm force winds extending over Okinawa. Surface observations from Kadena AB show peak sustained winds of 51 knots…with 66 knot gusts.
Meanwhile, there are multiple spiral cloud bands wrapping into an intense, symmetric 10-15 NM round eyewall.
Upper level analysis indicates low to moderately strong 10-20 knot wind shear, being offset by near radial outflow.
This TC will continue tracking northwestward, while intensifying steadily during the next 24 hours, reaching 115 knots…due to favorable conditions.
As we get to the 36 hour point, this tropical cyclone will begin tracking more poleward, and weaken significantly as it tracks inland over eastern China.
As 09W clips the Chinese coast, it will bring rough surf, very strong winds, and lots of heavy rainfall to bear. Thereafter it will swing by close to, or directly over Shanghai, bringing potential transportation problems, along with some flooding issues as well. Thereafter, the JTWC has this system moving out over the Yellow Sea to the west of South Korea.
Maximum sustained surface winds at the JTWC warning #37, was 100 knot sustained winds…with gusts to 125 knots.
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Nangka) has strengthened into a super typhoon and continues to intensify…now located well north of Guam
TC 11W was located approximately 182 NM east-northwest of Saipan, and has been moving west-northeastward at 15 mph during the past six hours.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows compact central convection, with a distinct 8 NM eye.
Upper level analysis indicates STY 11W is in an environment with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and good divergent outflow.
This TC will continue tracking west-northwest through the next 48 hours. Nangka is expected to maintain its current intensity.
Beyond 12 hours however, environmental conditions will begin to deteriorate as 11W moves into a moderate to high wind shear environment, and reduced poleward outflow.
This high wind shear will persist through the 96 hour forecast point. Thereafter, this wind shear should diminish, enough in fact…that some re-intensification could occur. All of this will occur over the open ocean, away from any land areas. Open ocean vessels should be steering clear of this very dangerous storm!
Maximum sustained surface winds at the JTWC warning #25, were 135 knots…with gusts to 165 knots.
The NWS office in Guam has issued the following:
Here’s the forecast track with error cones
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN…PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS AS DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THESE ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
AT 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.1 DEGREES EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION FRIDAY…THEN TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 155 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THIS MORNING…THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 180 MILES.
Tropical Cyclone 10W (Linfa) has moved off the South China Sea…moving ashore along the China coast just east of Hong Kong
TC 10W was located approximately 45 NM north-northeast of Hong Kong, and has been moving generally westward at 12 mph during the past six hours.
Here’s a real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows this system has undergone a significant weakening of deep convection, due to land interaction, with a broadening low level circulation center.
Upper level analysis indicates 10W is in an environment, with low to moderately strong 10-20 knot wind shear…and with good poleward outflow.
TC 10W will maintain a westward to west-southwestward track along the southeastern coast of China through the next 24 hours. This will cause the storm to weaken further, dissipating within 48 hours.
This land falling storm is bringing strong gusty winds to the coast, along with rough surf conditions, and locally heavy rainfall. This precipitation will be carried inland, and impact transportation in the Hong Kong metropolitan area.
Maximum sustained surface winds at the JTWC warning #31, was 55 knot sustained winds…with gusts to 70 knots.
Tropical Cyclone 4E (Ela) remains active in the central Pacific, moving over the open ocean…and expected to remain offshore to the northeast and north of the Hawaiian Islands
Tropical Storm 4E (Ela) was located approximately 585 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, and has been moving generally northwestward at 15 mph.
Here’s a real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone in the central Pacific
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), satellite imagery shows pulsing deep thunderstorm activity near the center.
Upper level analysis indicates 4E is experiencing persistent moderately strong or higher southwesterly wind shear, which is limiting its organization and strength.
TC 4E will track in a general northwesterly direction over the next couple of days…remaining well offshore of the Hawaiian Islands.
A peak intensity of 35 knots is expected over the next day or so, which is happening now, with gradually weakening thereafter…leading to dissipation over the open ocean this weekend.
Maximum sustained surface winds at the CPHC warning #7, was 35 knot sustained winds…with gusts to 45 knots.
At the time of this writing, it looks as if this rather weak tropical cyclone will continue to stay a safe distance offshore of the Hawaiian Islands, paralleling the north and east facing coasts. This will put its circulation between a trade wind producing high pressure to our northeast, and the islands…effectively weakening the trade wind flow…bringing muggy conditions to the Aloha State Friday into the weekend.
This high humid area of moisture will track over the state, triggering showers, some of which could become quite generous, with even the chance of some localized flash flooding. This heavy rain threat would occur mostly during the afternoon hours, and probably in the upcountry areas…and where there might be a thunderstorm or two firing-off.
>>> Meanwhile, in the central Pacific Ocean, there are two tropical disturbances (shown above) as well…one which has a low chance, while the other has a medium chance of development.
The first area (circled in yellow above), with the low 20% chance of developing, seems to be of no concern for the Hawaiian Islands…at least through the next couple of days.
This second area of disturbed weather (circled in orange above), being referred to as Invest 91C, is in an area of favorable conditions, conducive for further development…as it moves slowly towards the west-northwest.
This system as well appears destined to move away from the Hawaiian Islands…thus there seems to be no danger for the Aloha State at the moment.
>>> Finally, in the eastern Pacific Ocean, there are two tropical disturbances (shown above) as well…both of which have a low chance of developing.
The first area (circled in yellow above), has a low 30% chance of developing, the one that’s most westward…to the south of Baja California. This area is being given a high 70% chance of developing within 5-days.
This second area of disturbed weather (circled in yellow above as well), has a lower 20% chance of developing. This area is being given a high 80% chance of developing within 5-days.
Here’s a satellite image of this general area.
Eastern North Pacific
There are no current active tropical cyclones
1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1100 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur are associated with a tropical wave and a broad low pressure area. Gradual development is anticipated through the weekend, and this system will likely become a tropical depression by early next week while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low 30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
2.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico are associated with a tropical wave and a weak area of low pressure. Conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system will likely become a tropical depression by early next week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Central North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 04E (Ela)
1.) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF HILO…HAWAII ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM…SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…20 percent
2.) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU…HAWAII ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
onmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for further development as it moves slowly toward the west northwest over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium…60 percent
Western North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones