Tropical Cyclone 09W (Chan-hom) remains active in the northwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 393 NM southeast of Kadena AB
Tropical Cyclone 10W (Linfa) remains active in the South China Sea…it was located approximately 233 NM east of Hong Kong
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Nangka) remains active in the northwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 195 NM east-northeast of Saipan
Tropical Cyclone 04E is now active in the central Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 1060 east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 09W (Chan-hom) remains a Typhoon, with more intensification expected…as it moves over the open ocean for the next few days
TC 09W was located approximately 393 NM southeast of Kakena AB, and has been moving west-northwestward at 13 mph during the past six hours.
Here’s a real time wind profile of tropical cyclone Chan-hom in the northwestern Pacific
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows the system has improved its convective signature, with a more well defined 20 NM eye.
Upper level analysis indicates TY 09W is located in a continued favorable environment, with moderately strong (15-20 knot) northerly wind shear…which is offset by good radial outflow.
This TC will continue tracking northwestward, while intensifying steadily during the next 48 hours, reaching 115 knots…due to favorable conditions.
As we get to the 72 hour point, this tropical cyclone will make landfall in Zhejiang Province, to the south of Shanghai…and begin decaying due to land interaction.
As 09W clips the Chinese coast, it will bring rough surf, very strong winds, and lots of heavy rainfall to bear. Thereafter it will swing by close to Shanghai, bringing potential transportation problems, along with some flooding issues as well. Thereafter, the JTWC has this system moving out over the Yellow Sea towards South Korea.
Maximum sustained surface winds at the JTWC warning #33, was 90 knot sustained winds…with gusts to 110 knots.
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Nangka) remains a typhoon and continues to intensify…moving by to the northeast of Guam
TC 11W was located approximately 195 NM east-northeast of Saipan, and has been moving west-northeastward at 10 mph during the past six hours.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows tight spiral cloud banding, into a 17 NM eye.
Upper level analysis indicates TY 11W is in an environment with light 5-10 knot wind shear, and over a warm sea surface…which is supporting intensification.
This TC will continue tracking northwest through the next 72 hours. Further intensification is expected, reaching a peak strength of 125 knots, with gusts to 150 knots by the 12-24 hour forecast points.
Maximum sustained surface winds at the JTWC warning #21, were 115 knots…with gusts to 140 knots.
The NWS office in Guam has issued the following:
Here’s the forecast track with error cones
WATCHES AND WARNINGS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IF NANGKA DEVIATES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE... ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 16.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.6 DEGREES EAST. NANGKA WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOME EYE WOBBLING MAY OCCUR...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE CNMI. NANGKA IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY... THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FRIDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 130 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
Tropical Cyclone 10W (Linfa) is active in the South China Sea, moving offshore of Taiwan, while turning towards the west…before striking the China coast east-northeast of Hong Kong
TC 10W was located approximately 233 NM east of Hong Kong, and has been moving generally northwestward at 6 mph during the past six hours.
Here’s a real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone in the South China Sea
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows this system has improved its convective signature, with good cloud banding tightly into the low level center…and a formative eye feature.
Upper level analysis indicates 10W is in a favorable environment, with low southerly wind shear…and radial outflow.
TC 10W will remain on a northwestern path turning more west…skirting the southern coast of China…and on through the large metropolitan area of Hong Kong. Dissipation will occur once this system moves over land.
A peak intensity of 60 knots is expected, with gradually weakening thereafter…leading to dissipation as it moves inland over China. This land falling storm will bring strong gusty winds to the coast, along with rough surf conditions, and locally heavy rainfall. This precipitation will be carried inland, and likely impact transportation in the Hong Kong metropolitan area.
Maximum sustained surface winds at the JTWC warning #27, was 60 knot sustained winds…with gusts to 75 knots.
Tropical Cyclone 4E is active in the central Pacific, moving over the open ocean…and expected to remain offshore to the northeast and north of the Hawaiian Islands
TC 4E was located approximately 865 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, and has been moving generally northwestward at 16 mph.
Here’s a real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone in the central Pacific
Here’s a Navy graphical track map for this tropical depression
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), satellite imagery shows that this depression has failed to organize over the past several hours.
Upper level analysis indicates 4E is experiencing persistent southwesterly wind shear, which is limiting its organization and strength.
TC 4E will track in a general northwesterly direction over the next couple of days.
A peak intensity of 35 knots is expected over the next day or so, with gradually weakening thereafter…leading to dissipation over the open ocean within 96 hours or so.
Maximum sustained surface winds at the CPHC warning #3, was 30 knot sustained winds…with gusts to 40 knots.
At the time of this writing, it looks as if this rather weak tropical cyclone will move safely offshore of the Hawaiian Islands, paralleling the north and east facing coasts. This will put its circulation between a trade wind producing high pressure to our northeast, and the islands…effectively weakening the trade wind flow…bringing muggy conditions to the Aloha State.
The bulk of the associated precipitation is expected to remain offshore of the islands, at least initially. The winds aren’t strong enough to have generated high surf for Hawaii, so that there doesn’t appear to be any danger from this vantage point.
>>> Meanwhile, in the central Pacific Ocean, there are two tropical disturbances (shown above) as well…one which has a low chance, while the other has a medium chance of development.
The first area (circled in yellow above), with the low 10% chance of developing, seems to be of no concern for the Hawaiian Islands…at least through the next couple of days.
This second area of disturbed weather (circled in orange above), being referred to as Invest 91C, is in an area of favorable conditions, conducive for further development…as it moves slowly towards the west-northwest.
This system as well appears destined to move away from the Hawaiian Islands…thus there seems to be no danger for the Aloha State.
Eastern North Pacific
There are no current active tropical cyclones
1.) An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is possible this weekend and early next week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
2.) An area of low pressure is expected to develop several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur over the next couple of days. Gradual development of this system is possible through this weekend and into early next week while the low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Central North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 04E
1.) Scattered thunderstorms persist around a weak surface low located about 625 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. But environmental conditions do not appear to be favorable for significant development of this system during the next two days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent
2.) Scattered thunderstorms persist around an area of low pressure located about 975 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for further development as it moves slowly toward the west northwest over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium…60 percent
Western North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones