Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
June 15, 2015

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Carlos) remains active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 175 miles southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 03E (Carlos)

Hurricane 03E (Carlos) is hugging the coast of southwestern Mexico…now at category 1 hurricane level

Here’s the latest satellite picture showing Hurricane Carlos – and the looping version – along with the looping radar from Acapulco, Mexico

Here’s a NASA satellite picture of this small storm…taken today

Here’s a real-time wind profile…showing Hurricane Carlos – along with what the hurricane models are showing

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 160 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico…moving west-northwest at near 6 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), first-light visible satellite imagery indicates Carlos remains a very small tropical cyclone. An earlier satellite pass also indicated the compact nature of the system, including a closed 5-10 NM diameter eye.

The consensus of satellite intensity estimates is 55 kt, but we’ll hold the initial intensity at 60 knots, pending the arrival of a United States Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft. The initial motion estimate is west-northwest at 6 mph. Carlos is expected to maintain a slow west-northwestward motion and move essentially parallel to the south-central coast of Mexico for the next 24-36 hours.

The NHC official track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast track would bring Carlos inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico. The very small size of Carlos makes the cyclone susceptible to small fluctuations in the wind shear aloft.

However, the general trend in the GFS-based SHIPS intensity model is calling for the wind shear to decrease to less than 5 knots by 48 hours and beyond, which should allow for some strengthening to occur over a warm sea surface. Carlos is expected to weaken into a tropical depression by 72 hours, due to land interaction and unfavorable environmental conditions, becoming a remnant low by 96 hours, and dissipating by 120 hrs.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the NHC’s warning #21, were 75 mph

Hurricane Carlos continues to be a very small storm, with tropical storm force winds that only extend outwards about 45 miles from its center…and thus far its heavy rains have remained offshore for the most part.

Heavy rains of 5-10″ will affect portions of the Southwest Mexican coast through mid-week, which will cause flash flooding and mudslides. Carlos brought 1.46″ of rain to Acapulco, Mexico this past weekend.

The NHC posted a Hurricane Warning today from Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana…while a Hurricane Watch is in effect from west of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.