Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Dolphin) remains active over the northwestern Pacific…located approximately 290 NM east-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 07W (Dolphin)

Forecast Track and Error Cone

Typhoon 07W (Dolphin) continues to gradually strengthen, forecast to bring heavy weather and high surf to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan

Here’s a very close-up, looping satellite image of this typhoon as it nears the FSM islands.

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 07W – along with a NOAA looping satellite image  

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 290 NM east-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam…moving west-northwestward at 18 mph.

Here’s the NWS Guam looping radar imagery, showing Dolphins outer rain bands moving into the area. Flash Flood Watches are now active…with 8-12 inches of rainfall expected.

In addition, seas will build to dangerous levels of 20 to 30 feet as Dolphin approaches. Beaches near and north of Dolphin’s center, will face a storm surge of 4 to 8 feet. As Dolphin crosses the islands, seas will become increasingly rough and dangerous before gradually subsiding this weekend.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), IR satellite imagery shows a small convective core structure with broken convective cloud banding along the northern periphery.

Upper level analysis shows that the system remains in an area of moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…offset by excellent radial outflow that is supporting thunderstorm activity.

Typhoon 07W is expected to shift to a more northwesterly path, and continue to gradually strengthen as favorable environmental conditions persist.

This system remains at typhoon strength, and will continue getting stronger through 48-72 hours, reaching 120 knots, with gusts to near 145 mph.  In the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, that would be the equivalent to a category 4 major hurricane.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #32, were 95 knots…with gusts to 115 knots…which is equivalent to a category 2 hurricane.

The JTWC forecast track takes the center of this typhoon within 218 NM north of Guam, 15 NM from Rota, 44 NM from Tinian…and 60 NM from Saipan within 24 hours.

The JTWC has Dolphin then moving out to sea after bringing very heavy weather conditions to Guam and those nearby islands…with no other land areas in its sights through the extended forecast period. There is the possibility that TY Dolphin may eventually strike the Japanese Island of Iwo Jima early next week. The primary Japanese Islands will be far enough away from Dolphin, that there shouldn’t be problems.

Beyond 72 hours, as TY Dolphin moves past the FSM, it will begin to weaken due to increased latitude, stronger wind shear aloft…and cooler sea surface temperatures below.

According to Weather Underground’s Dr. Jeff Masters, the last typhoon to strike Guam was Typhoon Pongsona, which hit the island as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds on December 8, 2002. Sustained winds of 144 mph with gusts to 173 mph were recorded on the island, and Andersen AFB was in the eye for two hours.

The strongest wind gust recorded in Guam was 170 mph during Super Typhoon Paka, back in December 1997. Approximately 60% of the homes on Guam saw major damage…while power outages were island-wide.

Even further back in history, Typhoon Karen in November 1962 is regarded as one of the most powerful tropical cyclones to strike Guam however, and was one of the most destructive events ever for Guam. Karen had estimated wind gusts up to 185 mph…causing almost all homes to be damaged or destroyed. Eleven people were killed.

May is exceptionally early for Guam to have a typhoon approaching, according to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks, no typhoon has affected the island in the months of February through June since record keeping began in 1945.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) gave Dolphin its name on May 9th. According to statistics from the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) database from 1951 – 2015, this was the earliest appearance on record of the NW Pacific’s seventh named storm of the year. The previous record was May 19, 1971, when tropical cyclone Carla was active.

Typically by this time of year, just two named storms have appeared, the seventh storm of the year typically doesn’t form until the third week of July. According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach…the seven storms so far in 2015 have been unusually strong.

The early start to this 2015 typhoon season is due in part, to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the tropical cyclone generating area between 5-10 degrees north latitude near the International Date Line. These temperatures have been over 3F degrees above average in recent months…due to the El Niño phase of the ENSO cycle.

Here’s a satellite image of this area – along with the NWS Guam forecast track map

According to the NWS office in Guam:

A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS…INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE…ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile. in addition to Typhoon 07W, there’s a tropical disturbance in the northwest Pacific Ocean (circled in yellow above)…which has a low chance of developing

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical disturbance – along with what the GFS computer model is showing

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 95W, and is located approximately 385 NM south-southeast of Majuro, FSM.

Satellite imagery shows a broad circulation area with mostly disorganized flaring convection.

Upper level analysis indicates that this disturbance is in a marginal environment, with low to moderately strong 10-20 knot wind shear and weak divergent outflow.

Weather models have backed-off significantly on any near term development of this system.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The JTWC is giving this area a low potential for development into a significant tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours.

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07W 

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea