Tropical Cyclone 06W (Noul) remains active as it enters the Philippine Sea…located approximately 415 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 07W remains active over the northwestern Pacific…located approximately 95 NM south-southwest of Kosrae
Forecast track close to the Philippine Islands
Typhoon 06W (Noul) continues to strengthen…and is expected to clip the northeastern part of Luzon Island
Here’s a NASA satellite image of this typhoon…showing its eye feature.
Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 06W – along with a NOAA looping satellite image – and what the computer models are showing
This tropical cyclone was located approximately 415 NM east of Manila, Philippines…moving west-northwestward at 14 mph.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), IR satellite imagery shows a nearly symmetric central convective pattern, surrounding a 14 NM eye.
Aloft, there is a favorable environment, with a low wind shear.
TS 06W is expected to track west-northwestward, and intensify steadily. The storm is expected to intensify to 120 knots within 24 hours, which should be the peak winds…offshore from the east coast of Luzon Island.
Public storm warning has been raised from yesterday’s 1…and is now #2 for its citizens in the Luzon province of Catanduanes. This warning indicates that the tropical cyclone will affect the area, and that winds of 62 to 114 mph may be expected within 18 hours.
The Philippines are calling this storm Dodong, and have issued warning #1 for the areas of the Luzon provinces of Sorsogon. Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Quezon, Polillo Island, Aurora, Quirino, Isabela and the Visayas provinces of Northern and Eastern Samar.
Warning #1 indicates that Typhoon 06W will affect the area with winds of 18 – 37 mph, which may be expected within 36 hours.
Typhoon 06W will make landfall in northeastern Luzon within 36 hours…with some additional intensification anticipated prior to striking the coast.
As Noul impacts Luzon, it will bring high surf and storm surge conditions to the coast, and bring very windy conditions and flooding rainfall overland.
This system is expected to steadily weaken upon crossing Luzon, and then further as it pushes out into the Taiwan Strait…moving well offshore. The extended JTWC forecast shows this weakening storm passing by offshore from the east coasts of the Japanese Islands thereafter.
Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #23, were 105 knots…with gusts to 130 knots.
Tropical Storm 07W remains active in the northwest Pacific…located far east-southeast of Typhoon 06W in the top PDC image above
Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 07W – along with a NOAA looping satellite image – along with what the computer models are showing
This tropical cyclone was located approximately 95 NM south-southwest of Kosrae…moving east at 5 mph.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), IR satellite imagery shows deep convection has developed over the circulation center, although the bulk of the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the northwestern portion of the center…due to persist wind shear.
TD 07W is expected to turn poleward and then west-northwestward over the next 72 hours. At the same time, light wind shear, and very warm ocean water will allow the system to continue intensifying.
The storm is expected to intensify to 95 knots with gusts to near 115 knots within 120 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #8, were 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots.
The JTWC forecast track takes the center of this storm within 45 NM north of Pohnpei. This will be very close, and potentially give that small island tropical storm force winds, high surf and heavy rainfall.
Here’s a satellite image of this area
According to the NWS office in Guam:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS…INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH…ARE EXPECTED
IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS…INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH…ARE EXPECTED IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS…INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO
73 MPH…ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS…AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS…INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH…ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.RESIDENTS OF FANANU IN CHUUK STATE…AND THE MARIANAS SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM 07W.
ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 765 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 1370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
PRESENT MOVEMENT…EAST…90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW…
TROPICAL STORM 07W IS DRIFTING EASTWARD…BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTH THIS MORNING…THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD PINGELAP
AND MOKIL. BY EVENING…TROPICAL STORM 07W IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
POHNPEI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST…AS WELL AS THE FUTURE
TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL STORM 07W SO THAT WINDS…SEAS
AND OTHER STORM EFFECTS FOR EACH ISLAND ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN.
KOSRAE..
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS..
YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS…AND PLENTY OF GASOLINE FOR
VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. FIND A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES.
DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AFTER
TROPICAL STORM 07W MOVES AWAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.
WIND INFORMATION…
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST…TROPICAL STORM 07W WILL LIKELY BRING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF KOSRAE LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND PEAK LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH AS 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEED…TIMING AND
DIRECTION MAY VARY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STORM MOTION.
STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION..
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FEET TODAY…WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 14 FEET. INUNDATION OF UP TO 1 FOOT
IS POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
RAINFALL OF UP TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PINGELAP…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. FIND A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM
SHORELINES. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.
AS TROPICAL STORM 07W IS CURRENTLY FORECAST…TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING…AND WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON…AND INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT…AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEED…TIMING AND DIRECTION MAY VARY DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY HOW TROPICAL STORM 07W MOVES.
STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FEET OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. SEAS
MAY PEAK AT 15 FEET OR MORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY…PRODUCING DANGEROUS
SURF UP TO 18 FEET.
OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
MOKIL…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. FIND A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM
SHORELINES. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.
WIND INFORMATION…
AS TROPICAL STORM 07W IS CURRENTLY FORECAST…TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT…AND WILL LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING…AND INCREASE TO 40 TO 50
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 50 TO 60 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING…THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASE FURTHER TO 25 TO
35 MPH BY EVENING. WIND SPEED…TIMING AND DIRECTION MAY VARY
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW TROPICAL STORM 07W MOVES.
STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FEET OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SEAS MAY PEAK
AT 15 FEET OR MORE SUNDAY MORNING……PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF UP
TO 18 FEET.
OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.
POHNPEI AND PAKIN…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REVIEW YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD
AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS…AND PLENTY OF GASOLINE FOR VEHICLES AND
GENERATORS. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. WIND SPEED…TIMING AND DIRECTION MAY
VARY DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW TROPICAL STORM 07W MOVES.WIND INFORMATION…
AS TROPICAL STORM 07W IS CURRENTLY FORECAST…TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD LAST INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF THE TRACK DROPS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH.STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FEET OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS MAY PEAK AT 15 FEET OR MORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT…PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 18 FEET.OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOCAL
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.
SAPWUAFIK…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REVIEW YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TROPICAL STORM 07W PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER…ANY SUDDEN CHANGE IN THE PATH TO THE SOUTH COULD PUT
SAPWUAFIK INTO THE EFFECTS OF A TROPICAL STORM. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.WIND INFORMATION…
A SOUTHERLY DRIFT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM 07W
COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SUNDAY.STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT…WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 13 FEET…MAINLY ON WEST AND
NORTH FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. INUNDATION OF UP TO 1 FOOT IS
POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
Eastern North Pacific
The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.
Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures
Central North Pacific
The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.
Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image
Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 06W (Noul)
JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Tropical Cyclone 07W
JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific
South Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea
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