Tropical Cyclone 17P (Pam) remains active in the Southwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 302 NM north-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia
Tropical Cyclone 18P (Nathan) remains active in the Coral Sea…located approximately 229 NM north of Cairns, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Olwyn) is dissipating as it moves just inland over western Australia…located approximately 264 NM south of Learmonth, Australia – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 03W (Bavi) remains active in the NW Pacific Ocean…located approximately 851 NM east-southeast Andersen AFB, Guam
Tropical Cyclone 17P (Pam) remains active in the Southwest Pacific Ocean…and is currently the equivalent strength of a category 5 hurricane!
Here’s a NASA satellite image of Pam, which was taken today
This tropical cyclone was located approximately 302 NM north-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia…moving south-southwestward at 09 mph.
Satellite imagery shows deep and tightly curved convective cloud bands surrounding a well defined 15 NM eye.
Upper level analysis reveals a continued favorable environment, with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear…offset by radial outflow.
TC 17P is now peaking in strength at a very impressive 145 knots, with gusts of 175 knots. Thereafter, this very impressive cyclone will begin its weakening trend…due to increased wind shear aloft, and diminishing sea surface temperatures.
TC Pam is generating dangerous seas and high swells along the coastlines in the Solomon Islands. The JTWC noted that wave heights were up to 45 feet.
Warnings continue from the Solomon Islands south to New Zealand. In the Solomon Islands a tropical cyclone warning remained in effect for the Temotu province, and a tropical cyclone watch was in effect for the remaining provinces.
Vanuatu has tropical cyclone warnings in effect for Torba, Penama, Sanma, Malampa, Shefa and Tafea provinces. A Red Alert is now in effect for the Sanma, Malampa, Torba, Penama, Shefa and Tafea provinces.
According to the Vanuatu Meteorological Services (Vanuatu local time) hurricane force winds (category 5) 158 mph were affecting the Shefa, Malampa and Penama provinces, and slowly extending to the Tafea province. Winds up to 75 mph are expected to continue affecting Sanma and Torba provinces today…although these winds will be decreasing as Pam moves southward.
In additional to hurricane-force winds, very rough to extremely high seas with heavy swells were affecting the Torba, Penama, Sanma, Malampa, Shefa and Tafea provinces.
Once TC Pam leaves Vanuatu, it is forecast to head to northern New Zealand, where it expected to be an extra-tropical cyclone. New Zealand has a severe weather watch is in effect for parts of the North Islands, including Northland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty Rotorua, Gisborne, and Hawkes Bay. Pam’s forecast to track calls for the tropical cyclone to move southwards and pass east of the country right after this coming weekend.
Tropical cyclone 18P (Nathan) remains active in the Coral Sea…which is forecast to reach the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane
Here’s a NASA satellite image of TC Nathan…taken today
This tropical cyclone was located approximately 229 NM north of Cairns, Australia…moving north at a very slow paced 03 mph. This storm will gradually take on a faster pace as it moves more or less east, and then curves southeast. It’s interesting to note that this storm is making a small loop just offshore from Australia.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center with the bulk of the convection sheared to the west.
Upper level analysis shows that TC 18P is located over an area of moderate to high 20-30 knot easterly wind shear…offset by excellent poleward radial outflow.
Going forward, these positive environmental conditions will bring this cyclone up to 85 knots of sustained winds…with gusts to near 100 knots. Fortunately, the path of this system will keep it away from most islands, until later in the forecast period…when it gets closer to New Caledonia, and the smaller islands in that group.
Thereafter, the combined effects of increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures will weaken the system.
Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #6, are 55 knots…with gusts to 70 knots.
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) –
Gales currently extend out to approximately 180 kilometres from the centre to the north of the system and about 120 kilometres to the south of the system. GALES could develop about coastal and island areas between Lockhart River and Cape Melville early this morning and could also develop south towards Cape Flattery as the cyclone intensifies. The risk of GALES will persist throughout Saturday morning, before contracting offshore during the day as the cyclone moves away from the Queensland coast.
Areas of heavy rain will continue about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts early this morning before gradually easing later in the morning as the cyclone moves away from the coast. A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Innisfail and some Flood Warnings are also current, refer to these products for further details.
People between Lockhart River and Cape Flattery should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
Tropical cyclone 19S (Olwyn) is dissipating as it slides more or less southward along the western Australian coast
Here’s a NASA satellite image of this cyclone as it impacts the coast
This tropical cyclone was located approximately 264 NM south of Learmonth, Australia…moving south-southeastward at a fast paced 20 mph.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows that the system has made landfall into southwest Australia.
Upper level analysis shows that TC 19S is now beginning its extra-tropical transition.
Going forward, as it has stuck the coast, Nathan will begin a customary weakening trend to the physical terrain features. It is bringing high surf to the coast, along with locally heavy precipitation and strong winds to the region as well, with rainfall extending a good distance inland…leading to the chance of localized flooding.
Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #9A, are 65 knots…with gusts to 80 knots.
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) –
Tropical cyclone warnings from Carnarvon to Jurien Bay, extending to the inland western Gascoyne, northern Central West and northwest Central Wheat Belt. In addition to the warnings, there were also red and yellow alerts in effect.A Red Alert was in effect for residents in coastal communities from Cape Cuvier to Denham, including Useless Loop, Overlander Roadhouse, Billabong Roadhouse, Carnarvon and Wooramel.
A Yellow Alert was in effect for residents in coastal communities between Kalbarri to Jurien Bay townsite and inland to Mullewa (this includes coastal communities and the towns of Port Gregory, Horrocks, Nabawa, Dongara, City of Greater Geraldton including Greenough, Leeman, Jurien Bay, Mingenew, Green Head, Morawa, Three Springs, Carnamah, Coorow, Moora, Dandaragan, Eneabba, New Norcia, Calingiri and Perenjori.
Tropical cyclone 03W (Bavi) remains active in the northwest Pacific, which is forecast to be the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane after moving over Guam as a top end tropical storm
This tropical cyclone was located approximately 851 NM east-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam…moving west-northwest at 16 mph.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows the central convection has deepened even as it remained slightly sheared westward from the center.
Upper level analysis shows that TC 03W is located in a marginal environment, with high 30 knot wind shear.
Going forward, we can expect a very gradual increase in intensity through the next 72 hours, as the system continues to track under moderately favorable upper level conditions…and warm sea surface temperatures below.
JTWC guidance suggests a peak intensity of 70 knots by the 120 hour forecast point.
The JTWC estimates that the center of what is forecast to be a top level tropical storm, will pass within 31 NM of Andersen AFB in Guam.
Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #9, are 50 knots…with gusts to 65 knots.
JTWC forecast calls for Bavi to strengthen to a typhoon on March 16, after passing directly over Guam on March 15. The extended forecast track calls for Bavi to move into the Philippine Sea and approach the eastern Philippines still as a typhoon by March 18.
Eastern North Pacific
The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.
Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures
Central North Pacific
The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.
Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 03W (Bavi)
Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 17P (Pam)
Tropical Cyclone 18P (Nathan)
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Olwyn) – Final Warning
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea