Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Bansi) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 230 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius Island

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Mekkhala) remains active in the Philippine Sea…located approximately 277 NM north-northwest of Koror, Palau

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 05S (Bansi) crossing the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone Bansi has had another major increase in strength, with further intensification expected…potentially reaching the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Bansi, which was the equivalent of a category 2 hurricane yesterday, has now increased back up to a Category 4 again…on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 230 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius, moving slowly east-southeastward at near 7 mph.

According to the JTWC, TC 05S has spiral cloud bands wrapping into a 46 NM well defined eye wall feature.

Upper level conditions continue to be favorable, as the system exhibits excellent outflow…and low (5-10 knots) of wind shear.

A relatively slow movement is expected to continue through 48 hours, due to a weak steering environment. Throughout this period, favorable conditions are expected to persist…allowing further intensification.

The latest forecast has this cyclone regaining much of its former intensity…leading to a peak of 145 knots…with gusts to near 175 knots. Thereafter, and beyond 48 hours, the system is forecast to weaken, as wind sheer aloft increases…and ocean heat content decreases along the expected path.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC warning #9, are 120 knots sustained…with 145 knot gusts.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this tropical cyclone

According to the JTWC track map, this dangerous tropical cyclone will continue to pass to the east of Mauritius Islands. This close call will bring heavy weather to some parts of this area, including high seas. Open ocean vessels should be giving this very powerful storm a large distance…staying well away from its center and outer periphery.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01W (Mekkhala) in the Philippine Sea

Tropical Storm 01W (Mekkhala) has increased in strength overnight in the Philippine Sea

This system is located approximately 277 NM north-northwest of Koror, Palau…moving westward at near 09 mph.

Satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center, with the bulk of the deep thunderstorm activity confined to the western semi-circle.

Upper level analysis indicates this TS is in a marginally favorable environment, with 15-20 knot (17-23 mph) wind shear…offset by good poleward outflow.

The JTWC forecast shows Mekkhala slowly intensifying over the next 36 hours, reaching a peak strength of 50 knots (58 mph), just before impacting the east coast of the Philippines. Mekkhala is expected to approach the central of Visayas region by January 17th.

At landfall, interaction with the physical terrain features are expected to weaken this storm further, as it moves across the central Philippines in a northwesterly direction…passing within 38 NM of Manila around January 19th. Thereafter, a weakening tropical storm will push out into the South China Sea.

As an aside, Pope Francis will be making a tour across parts of the Philippines through Monday, and although his itinerary is already laid out…this storm could force changes to his schedule.

Some of the worst impacts for eastern Visayas are likely to occur Saturday into the night, which will be the same time that Pope Francis is scheduled to make several appearances in that area.

Landfall is possible in Samar, one of the areas hardest hit by former Super Typhoon Haiyan, locally known as Yolanda. Pope Francis will be visiting eastern Visayas to interact with people who were severely impacted by this tragedy…a little more than a year ago.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 35 knots (40 mph)…with gusts to near 45 knots (52 mph)

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this tropical storm.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations…with an area of disturbed weather

Finally, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather in the Mozambique Channel…now with a high chance of developing

>>> This area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 93S, was located approximately 325 NM west of Antananarivo, Madagascar…moving eastward at 7 mph

Satellite imagery shows a consolidating, partially exposed low level circulation center, with deep convective cloud banding over the eastern semi-circle.

Upper level analysis reveals an improving, favorable environment with good equatorward outflow…and a developing poleward channel.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots (29-35 mph).

Dynamic weather guidance has become more aggressive with development over the next 24 hours, as the system tracks towards western Madagascar. This suggests an increased probability for the system to develop into a weak tropical cyclone just prior to landfall within 24 hours.

According to the JTWC, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been raised to high.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance

Eastern North Pacific

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Mekkhala)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Bansi)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea