Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
December 11, 2014

Tropical Cyclone 22W (Hagupit) is moving across the South China Sea…located approximately 314 NM east-northeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam – Tropical Depression

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 22W (Hagupit) crossing the South China Sea towards Vietnam

Once very dangerous super typhoon Hagupit has weakened into a tropical depression…and is moving over the South China Sea…soon to make landfall along the South Vietnam coast

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this tropical depression – and in the current looping mode – along with a closer view

This tropical storm was located approximately 314 NM east-northeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam…moving westward at near 09 mph.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery showed flaring convection sheared to the northeast over the low level circulation center…along with slightly increased deep central convection over the past six hours.

Upper level analysis reveals tropical depression 22W remains in an area of moderately strong (10-20 knot) wind shear, offset by a vigorous poleward outflow.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC warning #43, have fallen to 30 knots…with 40 knot gusts. TD 22W is expected to decrease further…as it crosses the South China Sea into the Vietnam coast.

This TD is expected to maintain a general west-southwestward track. This weakening tropical depression will dissipate quickly as it encounters the south Vietnamese coast, likely within 12 hours…and moves inland. As this storm moves over Vietnam it will bring rough surf to the coast, gusty breezes…with locally heavy rains to the area.

The Vietnam National Center for Hydro-meteorological forecasting has issued a tropical depression warning for southern Vietnam.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 90S

This tropical disturbance was located approximately 180 NM north of Cocos Island…moving southwestward at near 10 mph.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows improving curved cloud bands wrapping into a well defined low level circulation center…with deepening convection.

Upper level analysis reveals favorable environmental conditions, with low to moderately strong wind shear…and good poleward outflow.

The GFS model is indicating development of a tropical cyclone within 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds according the JTWC are running 28-32 knots (32-37 mph)

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Latest NE Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures