Tropical storm 15E (Odile) remains active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 230 miles southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico
Tropical depression 16E is now active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 775 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical depression 15W is now active in the northwest Pacific…located approximately 267 miles north-northwest of Yap

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 15E and 16E
Tropical cyclone 15E (Odile) is moving little…although the threat of heavy flooding rainfall along the Mexican coast has diminished some
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Odile is located approximately 250 miles south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico…and is drifting westward at near 2 mph.
Early morning visible images indicate that the 15-20 knot northeasterly wind shear continues to displace the surface circulation to the northeast of the convective center. Statistical and dynamical guidance suggests the wind shear will persist during the next 24 hours or so. After that time, the upper wind pattern becomes conducive for intensification through the remainder of the forecast period.
The intensity forecast is basically an update from the previous forecast, but now reflects strengthening to a major hurricane at the 96 hour period.
A westward drift should continue during the next 24 hours, although the motion could be somewhat erratic, possibly a slight jog to the southwest as indicated by a number of the deterministic models. Thereafter, the cyclone should begin a northwestward motion.
Odile will maintain a northwestward track and accelerate through day 5.
Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days, attaining category 1 hurricane status within 24 hours. It appears that Odile will be able to strengthen into a category 2 hurricane as it parallels the southern Mexican coast…remaining well offshore.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.
SURF…SWELLS FROM ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
>>> Tropical cyclone 16E has formed to the south of the southern Mexican coast…well to the west of Odile
According to the NHC, satellite imagery and microwave data suggest that the small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California peninsula…has become better organized.
Thus this system has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Sixteen-E. This 16th tropical depression of the season, is forecast to continue moving north-northwestward or northward with a significant decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours.
After that time, the cyclone should turn generally eastward with an increase in forward speed while it gradually becomes assimilated into the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile to the east.
While this depression could strengthen a little and become a tropical storm in the short term, opposing low and upper level flow should create a hostile shearing environment beyond 24 hours or so. Global models show the depression losing its identity in 2-3 days, but the official forecast will assume that the system remains a coherent feature through at least day 3.
Here’s a satellite view of this system…along with what the computer models are showing.
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, circled in yellow above, with a low chance chance of developing…to the southwest of tropical depression 16E
Here’s what the NHC suggests over the next five days, in terms of direction for this disturbance…and the two tropical cyclones in this part of the northeast Pacific.
This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 96E
This area is located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern Baja Peninsula.
Here’s what the computer models are showing.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15W
Tropical cyclone 15W has formed in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, heading towards northern Luzon Island, Philippines…as a possible typhoon with time
Satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center…with a broad area of deep convection.
Upper level analysis indicates the system is located in an area of moderately strong (15-20 knot) wind shear…offset by excellent equatorward outflow.
Computer models are in good agreement that the system will continue to track to the westward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 knots, with gusts to near 35 knots.
According to the JTWC, TD 15W will continue to track west to west-northwest. Favorable environmental conditions are expected to persist, allowing TD 15W to gradually intensify, reaching typhoon intensity within 72 hours.
Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression.
This area of disturbed weather in the South China Sea, is located approximately 371 NM east of Hue, Vietnam
Satellite imagery shows disorganized flaring convection associated with a weak low level circulation center.
Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment, with 15-20 knot wind shear…although sea water temperatures are amply warm for development.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The JTWC is giving this disturbance a low chance of developing within the next 24 hours.
Here’s a satellite image of this area, being referred to as Invest 95W.
Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather located about 700 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii…with a low chance of developing
It’s moving away from the Hawaiian islands…and poses no threat.
Here’s a satellite image of this area.
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical cyclone 15E (Odile)
NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Tropical cyclone 16E
NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Eastern Pacific Satellite Image
1.) Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a broad trough of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves northward and then northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent
Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures
Central North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
1.) An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a surface trough about 700 miles southwest of Honolulu Hawaii. There is a low potential for slow development of this system as it moves west slowly.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…near 10 percent
Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image
Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures
Western North Pacific
Tropical cyclone 15W
JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific
South Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea