Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm 15E (Odile) remains active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 230 miles southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico

Tropical depression 16E is now active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 775 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical depression 15W is now active in the northwest Pacific…located approximately 267 miles north-northwest of Yap

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 15E and 16E

Tropical cyclone 15E (Odile) is moving little…although the threat of heavy flooding rainfall along the Mexican coast has diminished some

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Odile is located approximately 250 miles south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico…and is drifting westward at near 2 mph.

Early morning visible images indicate that the 15-20 knot northeasterly wind shear continues to displace the surface circulation to the northeast of the convective center. Statistical and dynamical guidance suggests the wind shear will persist during the next 24 hours or so. After that time, the upper wind pattern becomes conducive for intensification through the remainder of the forecast period.

The intensity forecast is basically an update from the previous forecast, but now reflects strengthening to a major hurricane at the 96 hour period.

A westward drift should continue during the next 24 hours, although the motion could be somewhat erratic, possibly a slight jog to the southwest as indicated by a number of the deterministic models. Thereafter, the cyclone should begin a northwestward motion.

Odile will maintain a northwestward track and accelerate through day 5.

Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days, attaining category 1 hurricane status within 24 hours. It appears that Odile will be able to strengthen into a category 2 hurricane as it parallels the southern Mexican coast…remaining well offshore.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

SURF…SWELLS FROM ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

 
>>> Tropical cyclone 16E has formed to the south of the southern Mexican coast…well to the west of Odile

According to the NHC, satellite imagery and microwave data suggest that the small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California peninsula…has become better organized.

Thus this system has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Sixteen-E.  This 16th tropical depression of the season, is forecast to continue moving north-northwestward or northward with a significant decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours.

After that time, the cyclone should turn generally eastward with an increase in forward speed while it gradually becomes assimilated into the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile to the east.  

While this depression could strengthen a little and become a tropical storm in the short term, opposing low and upper level flow should create a hostile shearing environment beyond 24 hours or so. Global models show the depression losing its identity in 2-3 days, but the official forecast will assume that the system remains a coherent feature through at least day 3. 

Here’s a satellite view of this system…along with what the computer models are showing. 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, circled in yellow above, with a low chance chance of developing…to the southwest of tropical depression 16E

Here’s what the NHC suggests over the next five days, in terms of direction for this disturbance…and the two tropical cyclones in this part of the northeast Pacific.

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 96E

This area is located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern Baja Peninsula.

Here’s what the computer models are showing.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15W

Tropical cyclone 15W has formed in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, heading towards northern Luzon Island, Philippines…as a possible typhoon with time

Satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center…with a broad area of deep convection.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is located in an area of moderately strong (15-20 knot) wind shear…offset by excellent equatorward outflow.

Computer models are in good agreement that the system will continue to track to the westward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 knots, with gusts to near 35 knots.

According to the JTWC, TD 15W will continue to track west to west-northwest. Favorable environmental conditions are expected to persist, allowing TD 15W to gradually intensify, reaching typhoon intensity within 72 hours.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation