Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
September 2, 2014

Tropical cyclone 14E (Norbert) is now active in the northeastern Pacific…located approximately 180 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Norbert – along with TS Dolly in the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 14E (Norbert) has formed offshore from the southwest coast of Mexico

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of Norbert, along with a NASA satellite picture…and with what the computer models are showing in terms of direction.

Wind speeds at the time of advisory #1 were 40 mph sustained…with higher gusts.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, has enough organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Although moderate northeasterly wind shear is present, cloud banding features are in the southern semicircle of the cyclone…along with bursts of convection near the center.

Norbert has been moving toward the north-northeast at near 14 mph. Almost all of the guidance shows Norbert turning sharply northward and west-northwestward within 24 hours. After that time, there is some uncertainty in the strength of the ridge over northwestern Mexico, which causes some spread in the model tracks of Norbert…while it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula.

While the NHC forecast is close to the model consensus after 24 hours, it would not be surprising to see later forecasts be adjusted a bit to the north at longer range, given model trends.

The environment near Norbert seems quite favorable for strengthening during the next few days, with the tropical cyclone forecast to remain over warm sea waters…with moderate shear. Given this environment, it’s surprising that none of the computer models brings Norbert up to hurricane strength.

Norbert’s formation on September 2 comes more than 5 weeks before the typical October 11 formation date of the season’s fourteenth storm in the Eastern Pacific. (Credit: Weather Underground)

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the Philippine Sea

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical disturbance.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), this disturbance is located about 272 NM east of Manila…and is being referred to as Invest 90W.

Satellite imagery shows disorganized deep thunderstorm activity…associated with an ill defined low level circulation center. In addition, there’s weak convective cloud banding, broadly wrapping towards the center.

Upper level analysis indicates the disturbance is located in a favorable environment, with low wind shear…and fair outflow.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots (12-17 mph).

Due to the favorable conditions, but lack of organization…the JTWC is giving a low potential for development over the next 24 hours.