Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
August 22, 2014

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Karina) remains active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 1325 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii – Tropical Storm

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Lowell) remains active in the northeastern Pacific…located approximately 905 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California – Tropical Storm

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Marie) is now active in the northeastern Pacific…located approximately 325 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico – Tropical Storm

Here’s a good NASA satellite image of these three storms

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones Karina, Lowell, and Marie

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Karina) remains in place…although has strengthened during the past 12 hours

At the time of this writing, and based on NHC advisory #39, tropical storm Karina had maximum sustained winds near 70 mph, with higher gusts.

According to the NHC, satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Karina has been improving during the past 6 hours, and a banding eye feature is becoming apparent in the most recent images. Beyond 48 hours, a weakening trend should begin due to TS Karina moving over a cooler sea surface, and the intrusion of a stable and dry air mass from the northwest.

The current motion is estimated to be northeastward. The computer models show that Lowell will continue to influence Karina…in moving in a northeastward to east-northeastward direction through the next three days. Thereafter, a weakening Lowell is expected to pass to the north and northwest of TS Karina. Karina will move towards the northwest and eventually toward the west by the end of the forecast period.

Here’s a satellite image of Karina…along with what the computer models are showing.

~~~ Tropical Cyclone 12E (Lowell) continues to be an extra large tropical storm…although has weakened during the past 24 hours

Wind speeds at the time of this advisory #19 were 60 mph sustained…with higher gusts.

According to the NHC, thunderstorm activity continues to gradually decrease around the large, ragged eye-like feature of Lowell. TS Lowell should continue to gradually weaken as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures during the forecast period, and the cyclone should become a post-tropical low within two days…and a remnant low by 72 hours.

Lowell should continue moving generally northwestward during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, this weakening tropical cyclone should turn more west-northwestward as it begins its dissipating phase.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm…along with what the computer models are showing.

~~~ Tropical Cyclone 13E (Marie) is the newest tropical cyclone to form in the northeastern Pacific…not far offshore of the southern Mexican coast

Wind speeds at the time of this advisory #3 were 50 mph sustained…with higher gusts.

According to the NHC, TS Marie continues to become better organized, with abundant deep convection and banding features in all quadrants. Additionally, water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level outflow is becoming increasingly well defined.

Since this 13th tropical cyclone of the 2014 hurricane season will be moving under low wind shear, and over a very warm sea surface over the next several days…continued strengthening seems very likely.

TS Marie should become a hurricane within 24 hours, and will likely attain at least Category 3 status during the forecast period.

Here’s a satellite image of TS Marie…along with what the computer models are showing.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…Global Clouds

Finally, there continues to be a tropical disturbance in the central Pacific…although it has a low chance of developing

This area of disturbed weather continues to be of no threat to the Hawaiian Islands, despite its relatively close proximity to the southeast.

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Karina)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Lowell)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Marie)
NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

1.) Low pressure centered about 650 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is nearly stationary. Isolated thunderstorms are associated with the low, but are showing little sign of organization. Conditions are conducive for only limited development over the next two days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures