Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Typhoon 09W (Rammasun) is over the South China Sea…located approximately 207 NM west-northwest of Manila, Philippines

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards with Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers…for Typhoon 09W (Rammasun)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, wind segments, and error cones for Typhoon 09W (Rammasun)

Tropical cyclone 09W (Rammasun) remains active, as it has moved across the Philippines into the South China Sea…located about 207 NM west-northwest of Manila, Philippines.

Here’s a NASA satellite image showing this typhoon…now centered in the South China Sea.

Typhoon Rammasun hit the Philippines’ capital city of Manila, where 12 million people live Tuesday night. The center of the typhoon passed within 40 miles of the city, and had top winds rated at 105 mph by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) at the time. This makes Rammasun one of the most powerful typhoons ever to directly affect Manila; according to NOAA’s historical hurricane web page…the strongest typhoon ever to make a direct hit on Manila was Typhoon Angela of 1995. [Weather Underground]

Rammasun’s eyewall collapsed as it approached Manila, and top winds at the Manila airport reached only 20 mph. However, Rammasun is being blamed for twelve deaths elsewhere in the Philippines. The typhoon came ashore in the Philippines in the Bicol Region of Luzon Island on Tuesday, as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds near 125 mph. Rammasun was the first typhoon to strike the Philippines since devastating Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013, which left over 7,300 people dead or missing. [Weather Underground]

Typhoon Rammasun had maximum sustained winds near 75 knots, as of JTWC warning #25…with gusts to near 90 knots. This would rate as a category 1 tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. There has been a major loss in strength as it crossed the Philippine Islands, due to its interaction with the physical terrain features.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows Typhoon 09W remains slightly disorganized, as it tracks across the South China Sea…in a northwestward direction at near 15 knots (17 mph)

The upper level analysis reveals a moderate environment, as strong equatorward outflow is being offset by moderate 15-20 knot (17-23 mph) wind shear.

Typhoon 09W is forecast to remain on a generally west-northwesterly track through the remainder of its lifecycle. As TY Rammuson crosses the South China Sea, favorable upper level conditions, and warm sea water temperatures will allow this typhoon to re-organize, and intensify…peaking in this renewed strength (85 knots…with gusts to near 105 knots) between 36-48 hours from now.

This typhoon will strike Hainan Island, as it’s second landfall, at typhoon strength, which will bring inclement weather conditions, including pounding surf, storm surge, blustery winds, and very heavy rainfall. It will continue on as a typhoon, as it crosses the Gulf of Tonkin, and makes a third landfall into northern Vietnam to the northeast of Hanoi. Heavy surf, very heavy rainfall, and blustery winds will bring all manner of inclement conditions to this coastal area as well. Mariners in the South China Sea, and then the Gulf of Tonkin, should be giving this dangerous storm a wide berth. Coastal residents of both China and Vietnam should be making quick preparations in anticipation of this dangerous storm approaching from the southeast.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global Cloud Cover

 Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance that’s active in the Philippine Sea.

The JTWC is centering this area approximately 205 NM northeast of Koror, Palau. This disturbance is drifting westward across the Philippine Sea at only 2 knots.

Satellite imagery shows a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center, with convective banding along the southern periphery…along with ongoing convective.

Upper level analysis shows a favorable environment, with good equatorward outflow, and low wind shear aloft.

Sea surface temperatures in the area are conducive for development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

According to the JTWC, the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 93W.

Here’s a satellite image of this area.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global Cloud Cover

Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the  eastern Pacific Ocean, just getting ready to cross the 140W line of longitude, from the eastern Pacific…into the central Pacific.

Here’s a satellite image of this area – along with what the computer models are showing for what’s being referred to as Invest 90E.

It would appear that this system, if it were to develop, and that’s certainly not looking likely at the time of this writing, would pass south of the Hawaiian Islands. Perhaps, by later this weekend into early next week, the islands may find the northern fringe of this area bringing showers to the islands…along with muggy tropical weather.

As noted below, there is a low chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone.