Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
June 27, 2014
There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation
There remains an area of disturbed weather, circled in yellow above, which continues to be watched carefully. The NHC is giving it a low 20% chance of developing over the next 48 hours. The thing to consider however…is that the NHC is giving it a high 70% chance of developing over the next five days!
Cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms extend several hundred miles offshore from the southern Mexican coast and central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form within this region over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone development as we push into early next week…as the wind shear aloft decreases. As we can see from the link just below, this TCFPG product pushes the envelope somewhat.
This NOAATropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product...shows this area highly destined to become an active tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. If this happens, it would become tropical depression 04E…and then with time could strengthen further into hurricane Douglas.
The Navy spins a tropical cyclone up in this area…keeping it offshore of the Mexican coast. It then takes a westward track more or less towards the Hawaiian Islands. However, if this were to happen, it would weaken greatly along the way…although eventually could bring tropical showers to Hawaii with time.
Meanwhile, theGFS modelalso shows something becoming active, and makes it a stronger storm. This model keeps it much closer to the Mexican coast, and takes it more or less towards the Baja California Peninsula…paralleling that coast just offshore.
This is not a forecast, but rather a snap shot of what the models are showing at the moment…the outlook could change at any time.
Cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms extend for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form within this region of disturbed weather over the weekend, and conditions appear favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone early next week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high…70 percent.
As I mentioned when we met recently at BNPB HQ Jakarta, I want to extend my appreciation to you, to your colleagues at PDC, and to USAID/OFDA for your hard work and dedication – and for your tangible results – in building capabilities and capacities for disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, especially in the area of hazard monitoring and early warning.
Daniel B. Whitley
Acting Associate Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service (2017)
"On behalf of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Services, I would like to express my appreciation and full support of the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) for its essential contributions...with data and support...we've been able to improve our global agricultural production and disaster assessment analyses, products, and decision outcomes."
Harlan V. Hale
Regional Advisor, USAID/DCHA/OFDA/EAP
"From a disaster management perspective, these agencies [PDC, HOT, PetaBencana.id] have combined their skills, have worked well together, and have created something that is really innovative, useful, and can actually improve both the disaster response by the government and citizen's participation in it as well."
Emergency Management Coordinator, Texas Health and Human Services (2017)
“Keep up the good work. I'm using EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) in Texas to monitor Hurricane Harvey.”
Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force, JTF-Bravo (2017)
"JTF-Bravo sincerely appreciated the HADR decision-support information provided by the Pacific Disaster Center during Hurricane Irma response… has been both timely and valuable support of current operations."
Director, Office of Civil Defense (2015)
"We are very appreciative of your support to our country."
Augusto Moreno O'Phelan
Director General for Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Defense, Peru (2016)
"Many thanks for your important information about the ongoing outbreak of Zika virus in the Americas."
Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Infrastructure & Transport, Fiji (2016)
"Thank you and your team for so quickly responding to our needs."
- Carolann Albury
Director, Bahamas National Geographic Information Systems (2017)
"…thank you all for the assistance you have rendered on so many occasions to The BNGISC but more importantly to The Bahamas."
President, Republica Domincana Comisión Nacional de Energía
"Thank you for being aware of our situation and for the sending of images for analysis."
William I. Clark
Humanitarian Assistance Division Chief, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017)
Our success during response efforts is directly related to PDC's contribution. The set of tools offered by your decision support system (DisasterAWARE), the large amount of data, the modeling and assessments, and skill set of your staff are unique. They provide my team with great situational awareness in a timely manner, enabling rapid and informed decision making in critical periods."
Disaster Management Advisor, U.S. Forest Service, Myanmar (2017)
"The big floods in Southern China are causing some real problems for Vietnam and Myanmar and DMRS/EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) is the best visualization for this regional flood situation."
Ministry of Information and Communications, Kingdom of Tonga (2017)
"I was first introduced to EMOPS (DisasterAWARE)...during a HA/DR training in Auckland this year. I've worked with several tools and it is obvious that EMOPS is the only sustainable tool that is available and is openly available."
Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho
Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations, BNPB (2017)
"Thank you very much for your support in Mt Agung eruption. Very useful to us."
Lisa Samson on PDC products during hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria
Assistant Deputy Director, Exercises & Coalition Affairs, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017)
"[I] wanted to pass along that the reports that PDC is generating are succinct and extremely informative. I've passed along to other colleagues in the HQs staff and other COCOMs to peak their interest. Well done!"
FEMA National Headquarters Geospatial Information Officer (2015)
"My sincerest thanks to the PDC team during this event. [Tropical Cyclone Dolphin] Your professionalism and dedication to the mission is to be commended. I'm sure we will have plenty to discuss/improve upon in the weeks to follow. Thanks again for all the support. Great job team."
USDA Foreign Agriculture Service officer
"Your suggestion that we look at PDC content and capabilities has really paid off. We partnered with them, and are ingesting their global disaster feeds into [Global Agricultural & Disaster Assessment System] GADAS. The addition of a couple of our own applications to quickly delineate impacted areas and extract agricultural acreage and population has proved quite valuable."
Jeremy K. Delancy
Senior Assistant Secretary, Ministry of Social Services & Community Development, Commonwealth of The Bahamas (2016)
"I wanted [PDC] to know that I used DisasterAWARE during Hurricane Joaquin and it performed admirably. Some further training will be needed for us to use it to its full capabilities. One of the persons who was quite impressed is Chief Meteorological Officer, Mr. Arnold King."
Research Engineer, Advanced Supply Chain Management & Humanitarian Logistics, National University of Singapore (2016)
"I knew of 'InAWARE' and I am impressed by its capabilities. Information sharing in the humanitarian context is still a big challenge (especially in ASEAN), and the efforts you are putting to close this gap are highly appreciated, and indeed highly useful for the whole humanitarian community."
The Consulate General of Japan, Honolulu, HI (2016)
"Aloha Julie. Hello. After the registration [for DisasterAWARE], I started to receive warnings such as Typhoon Meranti. That data contains necessary info and is so graphic that it's easy to know at a glance how the impact is. This is very important for our duties. Thank you again."
Goespatial Coordinator, DHS-FEMA Region 9 (2016)
"EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) made my day so much easier while monitoring [Tropical Cyclone] AMOS. Data that I thought I'd spend a good part of the morning digging for was available, as were the tools to draw polygons and annotate and meet the requirement."
Emergency Coordinator of Safety, Security and Emergency Management, Virginia Department of Transportation (2016)
"I work for the Virginia DOT as an emergency planner. I would like to be added to your distribution list for awareness products. I followed work during Hurricane Mathew and would like to avail our organization of your great products."
Program Manager, Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program, FEMA (2017)
"Aloha PDC team: I wanted to express my sincere gratitude for all of your support during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The modeling and risk assessment support you have provided to FEMA has been incredibly helpful for our response efforts and our emergency management partners. I'm looking forward to a continued partnership."
Lieutenant Colonel, Public-Private Cooperation Program Coordinator, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2016)
"As a Public-Private Cooperation (PPC) Program Coordinator, PDC's vision and leadership translates into strategies that enable others to effectively achieve results."
Mr. Eliezer Serrano, Jr.
Lead Data Fusion Manager, U.S. SOUTHCOM Joint Operations Center (2016)
PDC's support in the SOUTHCOM region and its commitment to promote public safety were unfailing during the Rio Olympics. [DisasterAWARE] greatly enhanced our situational awareness and offered an abundance of useful data and safety monitoring information."
United Nations OCHA (2016)
"I was impressed with how quickly you guys developed situational awareness products...quite impressed with your team's work."
Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho
Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations for Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB
CONRED Special Advisor to the Executive Secretary of Guatemala
Bahamas Disaster Recovery Manager and First Assistant Secretary
Edy Manolo Barillas
U.N. OCHA National Disaster Advisor to Guatemala
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