Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Cristina) remains active offshore to the south of Mexico…located approximately 175 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 02A remains active in the Arabian Sea…located approximately 508 NM south of Karachi, Pakistan

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, wind segments, and error cones for Tropical Cyclone 03E (Cristina)

Tropical cyclone 03E (Cristina) is now active in the northeast Pacific, offshore from the Mexican coast. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is locating this tropical storm about 175 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The motion of this TS is towards the west…at near 4 knots.

TS Cristina appears to have begun to move out of a region of weak steering currents. This in turn suggests that the tropical cyclone will move steadily westward.

A large thunderstorm complex that occurred over Mexico last night, has sent a large band of high level cirrus clouds southward. This in turn has temporarily increased the northerly wind shear across Cristina. However, that wind shear has abated, and as a result wind shear should remain low over the next 2-3 days.

Thus, the environmental conditions will improve, allowing Cristina to gradually strengthen. During this time frame, the NHC is forecasting a brief period of hurricane force winds (category 1 hurricane status)…between 48-72 hours. Thereafter, this TC is forecast to move into a less favorable environment, with strengthening southwesterly wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures. These conditions will induce a gradual to rapid weakening.

Although not at the coastline, the NHC is saying that Cristina is near enough to cause dangerous surf conditions. Swells generated by Cristina are affecting portions of the south-central coast of western Mexico. These swells will likely continue through today…causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

According to Weather Underground, the formation of the Eastern Pacific’s third storm of the season on June 10, comes nearly a month before the climatological average of July 5th for the usual appearance of the third storm. We’ve already had one hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year (Category 4 Amanda, the strongest May hurricane ever observed in the Eastern Pacific)…and the usual formation date for the second hurricane of the season is July 14. The 1981 – 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA’s pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, is calling for an active season, with around 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4.5 major hurricanes. This year is forecast to be an El Niño year, and El Niño conditions typically increase the sea surface temperatures, and decrease the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific…favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this system.

Here’s a satellite image of Tropical storm Cristina.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, wind segments, and error cones for Tropical Cyclone 02A

 Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone 02A has spun up in the Arabian Sea. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), it is moving towards the north-northwest at 8 knots…towards Oman.

It is expected to intensify into a category one cyclone later this week…between 36-48 hours from now.

At the moment, there is some wind shear above this strengthening TC, and at the same time…dry air in the vicinity.

The JTWC reported that satellite imagery showed a slowly-consolidating low-level circulation center, with deep convective banding located primarily over the southern semi-circle.

At 1500 UTC, 02A had maximum sustained winds near 40 knots (45 mph). It was located about 508 nautical miles south of Karachi, Pakistan.

JTWC forecasters expect 02A to turn towards the west-northwest over the next couple of days…making typhoon status in the next couple of days…before weakening on its approach to the Arabian Peninsula.

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this TC taken today.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Finally, there’s an area of convection, circled in orange above, being referred to as 94W, located approximately 185 NM south-southwest of Ishigakijima, Japan.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area, to the east-southeast of Taiwan.

Again, according to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a well defined low level circulation center. It has had isolated bursts of deep convection, sheared towards the east and southeast of the center.

Upper level analysis shows the the center is located just poleward of a high pressure ridge, in a marginal environment…with low to moderately strong wind shear.

Weather models indicate a 2-3 day window of potential development, before the system meets unfavorable environmental conditions.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots (17-23 mph).

The JTWC is giving a potential for developing into a tropical cyclone, within the next 24 hours…medium.