Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
March 20, 2014

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

There continues to be an area of disturbed weather…which is located approximately 223 NM east of South Kuta, Bali, Indonesia.

Satellite imagery shows flaring deep convection, associated with a slowly consolidating low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginal environment, with low to moderate wind shear, and fair outflow.

Weather models indicate slow development over the next 48 hours, as the system drifts across the Indonesian Archipelago.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots (29-35 mph).

The JTWC is giving the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours…a medium chance.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation, and an area of disturbed weather in the Philippine Sea

There’s a second tropical disturbance (being referred to as Invest 94P) located in the Philippine Sea, located approximately 435 NM east of Zamboanga, Philippines.

Satellite imagery shows formative, deep convective cloud banding over the northern semi-circle, of a slowly developing low level circulation center. Images also reveal a symmetrical circulation, with 15-20 knot (17-23 mph) winds, primarily located over the northern semi-circle.

Meanwhile, a ship report, from 120 NM south-southwest of the center, indicates sustained west-northwesterly winds at 15 knots.

Upper level analysis reveals the area is in a marginally favorable environment, with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear…and good poleward outflow.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The JTWC is giving this disturbance a medium chance of developing within the next 24 hours

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area