Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans - Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global)

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
February 20, 2014

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Guito) remains active in the Mozambique Channel, located approximately 575 NM southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, wind segments, and error cones for Tropical Cyclone 15S (Guito)…in the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Guito) remains active in the southern Mozambique Channel, located approximately 575 NM southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. TC 15S has tracked southward at 13 knots over the past six hours.

Satellite imagery shows the structural organization for the low level circulation center remains well defined.

The deep convection associated with the center has diminished over the past 12 hours, as the equatorward outflow has weakened under the influence of an upper level ridge of high pressure…which is now located to the north of this tropical cyclone.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), this weakening of the outflow channel has mitigated the stronger intensification…expected in the previous forecast package.

During the upcoming 24 hour period, and as TC Guito continues tracking south, there will be a brief intensification.

The current sustained wind speeds are 65 knots (75 mph), which is typhoon strength, with gusts to near 80 knots (92 mph). The forecast brings the sustained winds up to a peak 75 knots, with gusts to 90 knots within 24 hours. Thereafter, winds will gradually weaken, heading towards an extra-tropical transition by 36 hours.

This weakening will be a result of this storm moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and increasing wind shear aloft.

TC 15S will remain over the very southern Mozambique Channel a little while longer, before it moves into the open ocean well to the south and southeast of Madagascar…with no land areas, including islands, along the projected JTWC track. Ships should avoid this area, as winds and seas will be very rough over the next couple of days.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this tropical cyclone / Here’s a NASA satellite image of TC Guito taken earlier this morning.

This Total Rainfall graphic shows that most of the heavy rainfall associated with this storm fell over the Mozambique Channel, rather than over land areas…during the 11-19 February period – according to TRMM.

TRMM revealed that Guito was producing rain at a rate of ~ 2 inches per hour in the center of the Mozambique Channel…with scattered light rain on Madagascar’s western coast. The highest totals, in the Mozambique Channel have been greater than 16.90 inches.

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th…and has now ended. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image