Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans - Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global)

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
January 14, 2014

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Colin) remains active over the South Indian Ocean?located about 1171 NM south of Diego Garcia (Sustained winds of 40 knots?with gusts up to 50 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, and wind segments for Tropical Cyclone 08S (Colin)?over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Colin ) remains active, located approximately 1171 NM south of Diego Garcia in the south Indian Ocean…tracking southward at 10 mph over the past six hours.

Satellite imagery shows the system continues to deteriorate, with a nearly complete loss of deep thunderstorm activity.

The overall low level structure of this storm has become less tightly wrapped around the center during the last 12 hours…as it progresses over unfavorable sea surface temperatures.

Current sustained winds have dropped significantly to 35 knots (40 mph), with gusts to 50 knots (58 mph). The JTWC forecast has this TC decreasing steadily in strength through the next 24 hours.

The upper level environment will deteriorate as vertical wind shear increases…associated with the mid-level westerlies.

Here’s a JTWC satellite image of this tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean.

The JTWC notes that Colin is expected to track over open ocean waters, heading south, and turning to the southeast soon.

This weakening TC should continue to be avoided by ships in the area.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation, and an area of disturbed weather in the Arafura Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation, and an area of disturbed weather near the Arafura Sea

A tropical disturbance remains active, circled in orange above, located approximately 85 NM east-northeast of Darwin, Australia.?

Satellite imagery shows persistent deep convection, and fragmented cloud banding, associated with a slowly developing low level circulation center.

A radar loop out of Darwin, Australia continues to show improved convective banding, wrapping into a more defined low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in an environment of? moderate to strong, 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) vertical wind shear…although the strong diffluence aloft is sustaining the associated thunderstorm activity.

This system’s circulation center is currently over land, although weather model guidance suggests it will re-emerge over the Arafura Sea in the next 24-36 hours.

Estimated maximum sustained wind speeds were 20-25 knots (23-29 mph).

The JTWC is giving this disturbance a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours

Here’s a JTWC satellite image of this area

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th…and has now ended.?Here?s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image