Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
January 10, 2014

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Ian) remains active over the South Pacific Ocean?located about 371 NM east of Suva, Fiji (Sustained winds of 90 knots?with gusts up to 110 knots)

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Colin) is now active over the South Indian Ocean?located about 737 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia (Sustained winds of 35 knots?with gusts up to 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, and wind segments for Tropical Cyclone 07P (Ian)?over the Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Ian ) remains active over the Southwest Pacific Ocean, located according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), approximately 371 NM east of Suva, Fiji. TC Ian has been moving eastward at 6 mph during the past six hours.

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this impressive tropical cyclone…taken today.

TC 07P remains a compact tropical cyclone, and has seen its eye, which developed yesterday, expanding slightly…and has cleared to some degree over the past few hours as well.

Upper level winds remain on the low side, which is providing a favorable environment for a bit more strengthening. At the same time, sea surface temperatures remain warm enough to support this intensification as well.

Current sustained winds have increased to 90 knots (104 mph), with gusts to 110 knots (127 mph). The JTWC forecast has this TC gradually increasing in strength through the next 24 hours. It is expected to peak at 100 knots (115 mph), with gusts to near 125 knots (145 mph)…and then gradually begin weakening through the remainder of its life cycle.

There are hurricane warnings in effect for the Tonga Islands, including the Va’vau and Ha’apai groups of islands, and a gale warning remains in effect for the Tongatapu group.

The many islands in the region will feel the effects of strong currents, high tides and large waves. TC Ian is generating very rough seas in the Tonga Island group, as the JTWC notes that wave heights are as high as 23 feet.

This dangerous TC should be avoided by any ships at sea over the next several days as well.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of TC 07P

?Animated satellite image

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, and wind segments for Tropical Cyclone 08S (Colin)?over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Colin ) is now active, located approximately 737 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia in the south Indian Ocean…tracking west-southwest at 13 knots (15 mph).

Satellite imagery shows central convection has struggled to persist over the well defined low level circulation center.

Upper level vertical wind shear is reported to be moderate to strong. Although at the same time, and counteracting this, sea surface temperatures remain favorable, running higher than 28 degrees Celsius (82-82F).

Current sustained winds are running 35 knots (40 mph), with gusts to 45 knots (52 mph). The JTWC forecast has this TC will gradually increasing in strength through the next 72 hours. It is expected to peak at near 75 knots (86 mph), with gusts to near 90 knots (104 mph)…and then gradually begin weakening through the remainder of its life cycle.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this disturbance in the South Indian Ocean.

NASA’s TRMM satellite image saw rainfall in Tropical Cyclone Colin occurring at a rate of over 8.8 inches per hour (red)…near the tropical cyclone’s center today.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center notes that Colin is expected to track over open waters, heading west and later turning to the southwest.

This strengthening TC should be avoided by any ships at sea.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation, and an area of disturbed weather near Madagascar

A tropical disturbance remains active, located approximately 450 NM south-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar…being referred to as Invest 93S.

Satellite imagery shows shallow convection associated with the partially exposed low level circulation center. This circulation center is fairly defined, despite the weakening thunderstorm activity…as dry air is beginning to wrap in the western periphery.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in a marginal environment, with low to medium 10-20 knot vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures remain warm, greater than 28 Celsius…although is expected to decrease as this disturbance continues to track towards the southeast.

Weather model guidance indicates further degrading environmental conditions, which in turn are expected to hamper any further development.

Estimated maximum sustained wind speeds were 15-20 knots (17-23 mph).

The JTWC is giving the potential for the development of a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours…as low.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance.

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th…and has now ended.?Here?s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image